Wel misschien niet, er werd een asteroide gespot die de aarde op minder dan 30 000 km zal passeren op 19 april 2036, als de wind verkeerd zit dan is het met ons gedaan.... Volgens NASA en andere instanties is de kans op een 'botsing' ergens tussen de 1/50 000 en 1/50(!), vergelijkbaar met de kans dat je in je leven door een bliksem wordt geraakt... Zoek eens op hoeveel mensen er jaarlijks door de bliksem worden geraakt...

Google het maar ne keer : Apophis en meteor...

En wij maar denken dat we veilig zitten....

Wie ich schon in einem früheren Eintrag berichtet habe, freue ich mich sehr auf das Wiedersehen mit Apophis. Doch der Auftritt war sehr klein. Im Prinzip waren alle Auftritte der Goa'uld, mit Ausnahme von Ba'al klein. Spaß hat es mir aber troztdem gemacht Apophis wiederzusehen.

Auser Apophis und die anderen Goa'uld gabs noch Auftritte von Jack O' Neill, Major Davis, President Hayes und General Hammond. Auf diese Charaktere hab ich mich auch sehr gefreut. Aber bei Major Davis z.B. war der Auftritt ebenfalls zu klein.

Nico Marquardt, un jeune allemand de 13 ans, a revu les calculs de l'agence spatiale américaine sur la probabilité de collision de l'astéroïde Apophis avec la Terre. Là où la Nasa obtient un risque de 1/45000, le jeune génie le multiplie par 100 à 1/450, en intégrant le facteur risque de collision avec un des 40.000 satellites en orbite dans les distances concernées. L'agence vient de lui donner raison.

via LCI

Commentaire de Brieuc :

Le mercredi 16 avril 2008 à 18:58

Et en fait c'est la Nasa qui avait raison ... O_o

via The register

Today is the 100th anniversary of the Tunguska Event.

Below a cut from The History Channel:

Be very afraid..........

Bilder (MGM)

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

To help myself put that in perspective, I translated the statistics as reported into lottery odds. Basically, the report is telling us that this bright young man was predicting that, thirty-one years minus two days in the future, an asteroid stands twice the chance of smacking into the Earth than I stood of winning $275 with New Jersey Lottery's Pick 3, as a result of banging into a satellite during a close encounter seven years earlier.

This is where the stink-o-meter went off. A satellite -- like, one of the ones the space shuttle carries as payload -- significantly altering the course of a reportedly 200,000,000,000 tonne (noting that tonnes are 10% larger than tons) hunk of iron? More importantly, the prize for a 1 in 1,000 bet is only $275? What kind of sucker plays those odds? But what about the bigger picture? If A) your odds of getting hit by an asteroid are better than your odds of winning the lottery, and B) your odds of getting hit by an asteroid will be 1 in 450 -- an low not seen since the Cretaceous–Tertiary extinction event -- on April 13, 2036, C) you'd have to be a dunce to not plunk down the kids' college tuition savings in every Mega Millions Jackpot you can find with a drawing that night.

Well, wouldn't you know it, respectable journalism had to go and ruin a good thing. If you're interested in the gory details, this fellow over at cosmos4u.blogspot.com does a nice job of corralling truth from fiction, including a link to NASA's NEO Program website that then links to this informative-if-low-tech animation:

Segnala link non funzionante

Edellinen suurempi mediakriittisyysmuistutus sattui Venäjän Pohjoisnapa-sukelluksen yhteydessä, kun Reuters välitti venäläisen tv-aseman lähettämää jutuntaustoituskuvaa todellisena kuvana meren pohjasta. Ja niin kuin me kaikki muistamme, olivat nämä taustoituskuvat peräisin Titanic-elokuvasta.

Enää nykypäivänä ei siis riitä, että uutisten toimittajana on jokin luotettavana pidetty taho, kuten vaikka Reuters tai AFP. Uutisiin tulee aina suhtautua kriittisyydellä, mutta se näyttäisi olevan kokoajan vaikeampaa, kun tarkan tiedon saatavuus ns. yleisissä medioissa alkaa olla yhä heikompaa. Lähtökohtaisesti voisi kai sanoa, että mitä erikoisempi tai järkyttävämpi juttu, sitä varmemmin se sisältää jotain epätarkkuuksia tai jopa väärää tietoa.  Vastuu on viimekädessä aina lukijalla.

Venäjän Pohjoisnapa-sukellukseen liittyvään kuva-sotkuun liittyen olen kirjoittanut seuraavat merkinnät:

• Missä kävitte Mir-1 ja Mir-2? (9.8.2007)
• Reuters, miksi seikoilet? (10.8.2007)

Dalam berita sebelumnya Nico Marquardt, siswa 13 tahun yang menyatakan Apophis akan menabrak Bumi dalam perbandingan 1:450. Berita yang beredar juga menyebutkan kalau Nico dan NASA sudah mencapai kesepakatan, bahkan NASA telah mengakui kalau ada kesalahan dalam perhitungan mereka.

Dari kantor Near-Earth Object (NEO) Program di NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif, dinyatakan kalau NEO tidak pernah merubah estimasi yang ada saat ini terhadap kemungkinan tabrakan Apophis. Apophis tetap akan memiliki kemungkinan tabrakan yang rendah dengan Bumi yakni 1 : 45000 di tahun 2036. Bahkan NASA khususnya dari NEO Program menyatakan para peneliti mereka belum pernah melakukan kontak maupun korespondensi dengan siswa tersebut.

Dalam berita sebelumnya, dinyatakan Nico Marquardt melakukan perhitungan terhadap kemungkinan tabrakan antara asteroid Apophis dengan satelit buatan sepanjang close encounter (pertemuan terdekat) degan Bumi pada tahun 2029.

Sayangnya pada tahun 2029 saat asteroid apophis tersebut mendekati Bumi, ia tidak akan melewati area di dekat sabuk utama satelit geosynchronous. Dengan kata lain kesempeatan terjadinya tabrakan dengan satelit buatan sangat jauh.

Karena itu pertimbangan skenario kemungkinan tabrakan dengan satelit, tetap tidak akan mempengaruhi kemungkinan tabrakan yang sudah diperhitungkan saat ini yakni satu berbanding 45000.

NASA khususnya dari programi NEO bertugas untuk mendeteksi dan mencari jejak asteroid dan komet yang melintas dekat Bumi. Mereka akan mencari dan menghitung jejak orbit si objek untuk dilihat apakah ia akan berbahay bagi Bumi atau tidak.

Sumber : Press Rilis NASA

L'asteroide 99942 Apophis non è probabilmente in alto nella vostra attuale lista delle preoccupazioni.
E d'altra parte, perché dovrebbe esserlo?
Questo sasso col nome di un cattivo di Stargate SG1 passerà dalle parti della Terra nel 2029, e stando alla NASA c'è appena una probabilità su 45.000 che colpisca il nostro pianeta estinguendo la vita come noi la conosciamo.

Ora, io sarò un tipo un po' troppo prudente, ma devo ammettere che 1/45.000 mi pare comunque un rischio elevato.
Un sei al Superenalotto ha una probabilità su 622.614.630 eppure c'è gente che gioco lo stesso....

Comunque il punto è che la NASA ha toppato.
Un tredicenne tedesco, Nico Marquardt, ha osservato che pur mancando la Terra, Apophis potrebbe colpire uno dei 40.000 mila satelliti, relitti ed altro pattume in orbita.
Ciò modificherebbe la sua orbita ed al passaggio successivo, nel 2036, Apophis colpirebbe la Terra con una probabilità di 1 su 450.

E qui non sono io che sono un po' troppo prudente.
1/450 è maledettamente poco, come margine di sopravvivenza.
E nel 2036 io avrei appena 69 anni.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

Bello liscio.

E voi pensavate che il Berlusconi3 fosse un problema....

NASA a recunoscut eroarea. Stirea a aparut astazi, intr-un ziar german. Nico Marquardt a folosit datele Institutului de Astrofizica din Potsdam si a ajuns la concluzia ca sansele ca un asteroid sa loveasca Terra sunt de 1 la 450. Potrivit calculelor facute de specialistii NASA sansele ca asteroidul Apophis sa loveasca Terra erau de numai 1 la 45.000.

Asteroidul Apophis - care in greacă inseamna Distrugatorul - se va apropia cel mai mult de Pamant pe 13 aprilie 2029. Micul geniu in astrofizica a calculat ca, daca asteroidul se loveste de unul dintre cei peste 40.000 de sateliti artificiali, traiectoria ii va fi schimbata, asa ca ar putea lovi Pamantul peste 28 de ani, cand va trece din nou pe langa noi.

Atat Nico Marquardt, cat si specialistii de la NASA sunt de acord ca un asemenea impact ar insemna sfarsitul vietii pe pamant. NASA lucreaza deja pentru gasirea unor solutii de distrugere a asteroidului.

Seems that NASA wanted to reassure us that life as we know it would NOT end sometime in 2029.....said the odds are 1 in 450,000.

Now comes a German kid who says different.

NASA says they have rechecked, and he's wrong, but so were they. The odds are not as bad as the kid says, but worse than NASA originally said. Take a look at this map for a little perspective on how important the precise location of the decimal can be......

I say I'm moving to Montana.

Update: Shamelessly pinched from a comment on another blog:

By the way, it passes by the earth in 2027 on friday the 13th. If it hit's it will hit in the pacific ocean. So California may get wet. The energy content is said to be 26,000 Hiroshimas which is not that much but recent calculation suggest is more than enough to darken the earth.

Like, Montana might not be high enough......

Apophis, believed to be made up of iron and iridium, is supposed to have a possibility of striking the Atlantic Ocean.  The resulting tidal waves and dust cloud would wreak havoc on the population of the earth.  This asteroid is 1049 feet in diameter and weighs 200 million tons.  That's a big chunk of iron to be falling from the sky.

Even if there is actually a 1/450 chance of this object striking the earth, it is still a bit unlikely.  Not as unlikely as the NASA estimate of 1/45,000.  I have to wonder how sophisticated the calculations of a 13 year old are compared to NASA and all it's computers, but apparently the agency is taking the boy's work seriously.

Large objects have collided with earth in the past.  Anyone who looks at the moon knows what a meteor impact can do.  I'm not going to worry much about the possibility of asteroids striking the earth, there's nothing I can do about it so hey, why get upset?

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029. (link)

Nico Marquardt, es un joven de 13 años que se ha atrevido a desacreditar a la NASA, para ello ha utilizada observaciones astronómicas del Instituto de Astrofísica de Potsdam para terminar calculando que las probabilidades de impacto con la Tierra del asteroide Apophis, son de 1 entre 450 y no de 1 entre 45000 como había anunciado la NASA. Ahora parece ser que la agencia ha reconocido a la Agencia Espacial Europea (ESA) que el joven alemán tiene razón con sus cálculos.

El estudiante tomo además la consideración del riesgo que existe de que el Apohis impacte con alguno de los satélites que orbitan la el planeta calculando que podría impactar con unos o dos de ellos. Nuestros satélites viaja a una altura máxima de 35.880 kilómetros y el Apophis pasara a unos 32.500 kilómetros de la Tierra.

En lo que si coinciden la NASA y el estudiante es que en caso de impactar con la Tierra, se creara una gigante bola de hierro e iridio de unos 320 metros de diámetro y un peso de 200 millones de toneladas que caerá sobre el Océano Atlántico. El impacto crearía gigantescas olas tsunami destruyendo las costas y zonas interiores y creando una espesa nube de polvo que oscurecería el cielo durante un tiempo indeterminado.

Nico realizó su descubrimiento como parte de un concurso de Ciencias en el que participaba con un proyecto titulado “Apophis, el asteroide asesino”

BERLIN (AFP) — A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

I don't think I'll sleep very well for the next 21 years. Somebody get Bruce Willis on the phone.

Allez ça faisait une paye que l’on n’avait pas parlé de notre ami Apophis, le gentil astéroïde censé "frôler la terre mais pas la toucher ou alors juste un peu".
La Nasa avait calculée que la bestiole avait une "chance" sur 45.000 de percuter la terre d’ici avril 2029. Mais un petit génie de 13 ans a renvoyé l'agence spatiale américaine à ses calculettes. A partir des observations télescopique de l'institut d'astrophysique de Postdam, près de Berlin Nico Marquardt a recalculé une probabilité de 1 sur 450.

EN gros la scène a du se passer comme ça:
-Allo la Nasa?
-oui mon petit, c'est bien la Nasa au bout du fil
-Salut bande de naze je voulais juste vous dire que vous vous êtes planté dans vos calculs!
-What the fuck?
-Et oui les cocos vous n'avez pas pensé qu'autour de la terre gravite près de 4000 satellites et que l'astéroïde pourrait changer de trajectoire et venir toucher la terre en les percutant ! Bon c'est pas tout je vous laisse mais ma maman m'appelle pour prendre le gouter.

Une fois les calculs refait, l'agence spatiale à en effet reconnu s’être planté et a saluée la justesse des résultats du prépubère. A l’heure actuelle, on ne sait pas si les ingénieurs qui ont fait les premiers calculs ont été virés. Faisons le pari que se ne soit pas la même équipe qui bosse sur une solution afin d’empêcher le cataclysme qui, pour le coup, devient de plus en plus probable.

Les deux sont même d’accord pour dire que l’astéroïde tombera dans l’océan Atlantique ce qui n’est pas une bonne nouvelle pour la Grande-Bretagne. Mais gageons que ce pays plein de ressources, trouve une solution pour éviter qu’une vague géante ne les angloutisse. Pour ma part, je préconiserais la transformation de l’océan Atlantique en une énorme « gelly » à la menthe !

Not according to Nico Marquardt, a 13-year-old German boy working on his project for the regional science competition, aptly titled "Apophis - The Killer Asteroid". According to his calculations, there is a much more likely chance - one in 450.

Funnily enough, NASA claims the boy is correct.

The future is bright for Nico Marquardt - outsmarting NASA at 13-years of age is one hell of a dot point to add to your CV. But what to do with such talent?

If you were in the top tier of intelligence, what would you do with your abilities? How would you go about making the most of yourself? Would you use it to bring yourself great fortune? Work in the public sector working towards something a little more honourable?

I'm not necessarily talking about mathematical intelligence. I'm talking about being someone who can write with unparalleled perfection, understand maths with the best of them - essentially being able to be great at anything worth working towards.

I think many intelligent people out there don't make the most of what they can do - of course that depends on which point of view you take.

Some slave away for hours on intensive research for minimal pay, if any at all. Whilst others charge ridiculous rates as consultants in industry.

What would you do with your life if the possibilities seemed endless?

The article about the boy can be found here.

UPDATE

I've been had! "NASA dismisses schoolboy asteroid claims"

My questions still stand.

http://thisdevilsworkday.wordpress.com/