Spring chicken she ain't, but style is defined by more than just youth. I can't actually believe I just said that. I'm having some kind of Mrs. Robinson breakdown... Hang on, that's alright, Dusty snags the daughter come the credits, and she wipes the screen with Bancroft. Then again there is that awkward bus ride shot at the end of the film that makes the frantic finale ridiculous, which it is.

This is going nowhere, just know this betty is older than she looks, but pushes the Hepburn aesthetic and makes herself appeal to those outside the usual demographic of those that would make suitable bed mates for her.

Via Cafe Mode

I don't even know what to say about this.

Sean bienvenidos a la página del Clan Skizo, que en realidad no es página sino Blog, pero le hacemos buena reputación y nos sirve..

Aquí encontrarás información acerca de encuentros, miembros, y en general del clan..Zona de descargas para los atributos especiales del Clan, los modelos exclusivos de Skizo y mucho más..

Revisa los vínculos en la barra de Secciones de la derecha para ser parte, Los requerimientos, reglas y demás..

En especial la SECCIÓN DE NOTICIAS donde se mantendrán actualizado los cambios y eventos del clan..

En fin..Bienvenid@ al clan Skizo, si quieres contactarme para cualquier cosa: samael_skizo@hotmail.com   O desahogarte comentando en la página ve a esta sección: Comentarios

Para dejar tu solicitud de membresía ve a esta página "¡Únete Al Clan!"..el Admin la revisará periódicamente..

Y si quieres probar nuestro modo de jugar antes de unirte, entra a nuestros servidores..Dicen "Skizo's Xtreme", pero no se asusten, no hay que bajar nada nuevo, es el mismo XDM o BubbleMod, con algunas cosas añadidas, sólo eso..

Este es el único lugar donde puedo escribir cosas como esta..

Resulta que hay un clan por ahí, rondando los servidores de Half-Life, ya saben de nuestra existencia, somos el clan Skizo..!...¿"Qué es un clan" te preguntas pequeño N00b?..Un clan no es más que un grupo de wes que se unen para sacarle provecho a un juego, generalmente en juegos de Acción en Primera persona (FPS), tipo Counter-Strike, Halo, Half-Life y otros, todos bajo un mismo nombre el cual es el Tag, el nuestro [Skizo]..

Nunca pensé que iba a malgastar invertir tanto tiempo en este juego, hace tiempo también caí en el vicio de Counter-Strike, creé un clan, el Shinigami Death Note Clan [ShNgMi] [DN], pero me aburrí de Counter, demasiada estrategia, prefiero la violencia sin sentido a las manos de una escopeta con balas aparentemente infinitas, y el poder revivir con un sólo click del mouse, ojalá la realidad fuera así (¿YQuiénDiceQueNoLoSea?..¡Anda!..¡SuicidateYVeSiRevives!)..

Y después un tiempo jugando y casi siempre quedando de primero en la tabla, creé un clan, Skizo se llamó, y hasta ahora juego todos los días en varios servidores por ahí, pero principalmente en el propio del clan, que casi todo el tiempo está abierto, pueden ver los Stats en la barra de la derecha..Hasta ahora el clan está compuesto por 5 personas: Betty, king, Génesis, Victor y yo, la verdadera identidad de Betty todavía resulta un misterio..Ya nos ganamos el respeto de otros clans y de jugadores que nos dicen Chiteros, si implican que estamos haciendo trampa significa que estamos jugando muy bien, porque no usamos cheats pero pareciera que sí..

Después de un tiempo jugando por jugar, decidí tomar la vaina en serio, y ya que no tengo oficio, todavía no se terminan mis vacaciones, me puse a modificar y customizar unos modelos del juego, ponerlos al estilo Skizo, modelos de armas y personajes exclusivos para miembros del clan de los cuales dejo unas imágenes..

(ClickParaTamañoCompleto)

Según yo, el Shotgun (Escopeta) centrado me ayuda a apuntar mejor, y casi siempre termino de primero, 7 de cada 10 veces, así que debe ser cierto..Y si no lo es, igual se ve bien...¿Cómo haces para obtener estos modelos si te quieres unir al clan?..Bueno, entras a mi servidor, si me ves jugando me das tu Msn para enviártelos por ahí y guiarte en la instalación, mi nombre en el juego es "[Skizo] TxSamaelxT DreamDweller"..El modelo del HEV negro es para los rookies que se quieran ver bien, el resto de los modelos (Grises) son de igual categoría, sólo hay 2 modelos HEV negro con nombre y son los de Betty y el mio =D..

Y eso es todo, si te quieres unir al clan entra en el servidor IP: 200.84.100.176:27015 ..También visita el perfíl del clan en XFire haciendo click AQUÍ..Te recomiendo que abras una cuenta y bajes el programa en www.xfire.com y me agregues ahí: "MiPerfíl", es como msn, pero para Gamers..Nos vemos en por ahí matando píxeles..

VolverALaFrageadaPáginaPrincipal..

However, when you change the song lyrics so they literally interpret what's happening in the video- particularly when the video is something atrociously absurd like A-Ha's "Take On Me"- you end up with a cross between Mystery Science Theater 3000 and a bad stage musical. What I'm saying is this is brilliantly awesome.

Here's the "Baby" music video by Stax Records' Soul Diva, Angie Stone. "Baby" appears on the album "The Art of Love & War," available everywhere music is sold including via download on October 16, 2007. The e-single for "Baby" is available at iTunes now!

Americans know him for his films Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz, as well as his most recent comedy, Run, Fatboy, Run.  His new film, How to Lose Friends And Alienate People, is based on Toby Young's recollection of his hilariously awful experiences working for Vanity Fair.  In the opinion of this writer, though, Pegg was never more adorable than as the self-effacing Tim in UK sitcom Spaced.  His first collaboration with Edgar Wright and Nick Frost, the show used its low budget to maximum effect, creating whimsical fantasy sequences rich in pop culture references.  In many ways, the show was a spiritual predecessor to New Zealand's Flight of the Conchords.  Today's interview with the AV Club gives us just one more reason to love Simon-- his summary of his undergraduate thesis:

It was mainly about Star Wars and related works. It was mainly saying if you watch a movie that has inherent political messages, even if they're unintentional, and without critically objectifying yourself, you by consent agree with it. So if you have a film which is incredibly misogynistic, and you just watch it and enjoy it, you are a misogynist because you haven't been able to say, "Hey, wait a minute, that's putting forward an idea that women are to be demeaned." So in films like Star Wars and Raiders Of The Lost Ark there are certain social metaphors at work. Bomb-fear. A lot of big-weapon fear. Saying stuff like, say, "Big weapons are fine if you're good, and they're not fine if you're bad." The line, "Don't look at the ark" is a fantastic way of saying, "Just don't worry about stuff and it'll be fine. We have nuclear weapons, but it's none of your business." Also some of the sexual things going on, the gender relationships, the racial stuff that goes on, if you don't pick it out and say, "Hang on a sec. Isn't that saying that black people are stupid?" Then you're being racist by watching that movie. You agree with it.

Nothing gets a girl hot and bothered like critical analysis of popular culture.  As if you needed further convincing, go watch Hot Fuzz.  That scene in the pub where Nick Frost's character first makes Pegg break into a smile?  If that doesn't make you melt, you're dead from the waist down.

- done with chalk so it was erased with each frame

"Fantasmagorie" - Emile Cohl

- first true animation in August 1908
- graphite on paper

"Walking" - Ryan Larkin

- was nominated for an academy award in 1970, but Ryan lost his way and fell into drugs and despair
"Ryan" - Chris Landreth

part 1

part 2

- a 2004 Oscar-winning animated documentary by Chris Landreth about the influential Canadian animator Ryan Larkin (see above - he did "Walking"), who in later years lived on skid row in Montreal following a history of drug and alcohol abuse.
Earl Heard 1915 - invented celluloid animation - all studios had to pay him a royalty until the patent ran into the public domain

"The Old Mill" - Disney

- tricks of the trade - multi-plane camera
- special effects animation from back in 1937 - old school cgi hand drawn and hand painted (very labour intensive)
- editing is so important, it's how you move an audience
- as the storm builds, the shots get closer and closer - cutting/editing make the film
- Walt Disney spent only 12 years to refine animation from Steamboat Willy to Fantasia

- Disney either created or refined modern day aspects of animation
- Leonard Maltin has published numerous animation history books, including "Of Mice and Magic"
- 1937 - Snow White - used multi-plane camera up to Little Mermaid - last time it was used
- now they use D Canvas or Caps and computers to simulate 3d and distance
- "Minnie the Moocher"

- opening with Cab Calloway Hidy Hidy Ho!
- Cab Calloway was the man back in the day!  Max Fleischer vs. Disney studios
- Betty Boop was one of the first fully female animated characters- early example of rotoscoping with Cab dancing - precursor to Waking Life and A Scanner Darkly plus the iPod commercials as well - music video by The New Pornographers
Waking Life - Trailer

A Scanner Darkly - Trailer

New Pornographers - Myriad Harbour

Die Abenteuer des Prinzen Achmed (The Adventures of Prince Achmed)

- 300,000 cut outs to make this film - Lotte Reiniger - made in 1927
- very first animated feature film - she was the only one who did the cut outs - silhouette animation film

The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello - steampunk animation

The Old Man and the Sea - Alexander Petrov

part 1

part 2

- hand painted on glass (finger painting)
- wow - incredible paintings - clouds turn into elephants - lions - the sailing ship
- amazing detail in the oar slicing through the water and having the drops drip down
- the swordfish leaps several feet out of the water and keeps puling the boat further out to sea
- phosphorescence at night is beautiful - the crowd of people on the beach is incredibly detailed
- in the credits, it shows the director Alexander Petrov hand painting each individual glass frame

Peter and the Wolf - Suzie Templeton (also did a film called "Dog")
- stop motion puppet animation

MISC CLASS NOTES:
lots of cutting edge animation happening in music videos
international film festival - should check it out
the story of pixar - director leslie was grand-daughter of the guy who helped do steamboat willy
- the man who planted trees was roger lassiter's inspiration - he played it to introduce his festival
- not an actual true story - was fiction - frederick back

animation = bringing life out of something static
- animation is about drawing movement
- is it possible to make a bad film with beautiful drawings (star wars 1-3, final fantasy...)
- can you make a good film with bad drawings (rejected, simpsons, don hertzfeld)

Welcome to the Show - Don Hertzfeld

- DAMN THE ILLUSION OF MOVEMENT TO HELL!!!!!

Intermission - Don Hertzfeld

End of the Show - Don Hertzfeld

Rejected - Don Hertzfeld

- animation = just for kids?!?!? nope, it is much much more
- film screenings on wednesday help showcase the various techniques

STOP MOTION
- claymation (chicken run)
- paper cut out (south park, adventures of prince achmed - first animated film ever) aka silhouette animation
- puppet animation (nightmare before christmas)
- pixelation (neighbours, space jam, white stripes hardest button to button
- object animation - stop motion (joanna priestley)

- experimental (painted glass, the street, norman mclaren)
- pin screen animation (very rare - use pin screen - NFB animations - do research - each shot is unique - cannot be recreated - alex alexsov)
- rotoscope (waking life, a scanner darkly)
- cell animation (disney, looney toons, duck amuck)
- limited animation (simpsons - all you get is mouth/hand being animated vs. disney where the entire body is animated)
aka illustrated radio because the shots are reused 1960's cartoons like spider man)

Additional Animation clips:

The Animatrix - Final Flight of the Osiris

God give me the strength to calm myself down, for i feel like just  - - - -

I just read a news story that was about Bethlehem and her mom Elsa Imbaye. Supposedly, they have been living in the UK for 4 years and within a blink of an eye their life is about to change forever. They have been picked by the British immigration officers or something like that, and they have been told that they are ready to be deported back to Ethiopia, but what i find frustrating the most is the fact that whoever broke this story don't know or share the reason for their deportation proceedings.

11 year old Bethlehem has got to be the smartest 11 year old. She managed to write a letter to (God knows who) and in it she describes her ordeal in a gripping fashion. I mean, an 11 year old girl beginning her letter with - "Yesterday was one of the worst days if my life", would capture anyone's attention.

I don't know the reason for their detention, but whatever it is, any human (much less an 11 year old girl) must be treated with the utmost respect and dignity. And reading her letter which describes her ordeal just boils my blood.

"After an hour or something, some people form their office came to take us to the detention centre. We prayed to God that he would be us in this mess. Five minutes later we were taken to the van to go. It took us two hours and 45 minutes to get here. Once we got inside, it felt as if we were in prison for doing an awful crime. I still feel like that today and I hope God will get rid of all this worries and all this guilt inside because I know that with all my heart both and my mum are not bad persons", says Bethlehem, describing what must have felt like hell-on-earth for an 11 year old

Just an exceptional young girl, with a unique aptitude to think on her feet and write such a touching and riveting letter, while at the same time accurately depicting her horrifying ordeal.

Here is her letter:-

Yesterday was one of the worst days if my life. I woke up in the morning like I usually do to go to school. I went into my mum's bedroom to tell her I had woken up. Suddenly we heard this banging on our door. At first I thought it was a firearm but the banging kept on going.

That’s when we realised it was the door. My mum got up and went to see who it was. I was still in the bedroom at that time and frightened. I was shaking like never before. Once my mum had opened the door about 6-8 officers came in and they handed my mum a letter and lead us both into the living room. That letter was in fact a warrant to say that they had come to search our house. They told us that we had to pack our stuff and go with them because the Home Office had organised to get us both on a plane to go back to Ethiopia on the 1st of October.

Both me and my mum was so horrified and shocked we couldn’t think straight. The officers told us that they had to follow us around the house just in case we tried to do something stupid. Once me and my mum had dressed they told us to pack all of the stuff we wanted. My mum said that she didn’t want anything because she was shocked and upset. On the other hand, the officer that was in my room with me told me to pack everything I had. I went into the wardrobe and tried to think but I couldn’t. The officer was just talking at me and telling me "pack, pack, pack!". I just wanted her to be quiet and for her to leave me alone. A little later we were finished packing some things and was lead to the vehicle that was down stairs, outside.

The officers drove us to Waterside House in Leeds. It is an immigration office. They lead us into some sort of small office. When we entered we saw there was two rooms, small office and another room that we had to stay in for that moment in time.

From there we were told to wait until further notice. After a while one of the officers came in and explained to us that the Home Office had tickets to go back to Ethiopia. My mum replied that we can’t go back to Ethiopia because my mum is Eritrean and it is not safe because they might put her back into detention and there might also be a possibility of her being killed by the authorities. Also I am not allowed to go Eritrea because I am Ethiopian and I can’t go in Ethiopia because I would have no one to look after me because my mum isn’t allowed to go to Ethiopia and as for my dad, I don’t know where he is. They didn’t say anything to us. The most horrible thing was they told us they were going to take both of us to a detention centre until the day of our flight. It was at moment we realised there might not be any hope for us.

After an hour or something, some people form their office came to take us to the detention centre. We prayed to God that he would be us in this mess. Five minutes later we were taken to the van to go. It took us two hours and 45 minutes to get here. Once we got inside, it felt as if we were in prison for doing an awful crime. I still feel like that today and I hope God will get rid of all this worries and all this guilt inside because I know that with all my heart both and my mum are not bad persons.

Reading such a letter makes ones desire to help an 11 year old visceral, and being unable to help makes this world we live in a stinking place.

That's why, in the wake of all the political and economic panic, it was such a relief to hear someone speak so clearly and passionately-and against her own party's stated position- about what she felt was right.

As an aside, when they talk about Sarah Palin and the glass ceiling in politics, they really should turn to Representative Kaptur.  SHE is the result and continuation of the feminist movement, and she's definitely, DEFINITELY worth listening to.

Honestly, that's the trouble with the media.  They're under so much pressure to be "objective" and "unbiased" and not "lying sacks of shit" that there's no room for any real analysis of the information they present.  Fortunately, America has one person willing to state the truth:

That's right. Sean "P. 'Puff "Puffy" Daddy' Diddy" Combs' is the true voice of our generation.  I can't think of any greater representation of my opinions of just how much, indeed, John McCain is "buggin".  And no one in the political arena has ever before echoed my views on precisely how many black people live in Alaska.  Most importantly, though, is Diddy's raw expression of joy and passion for the political process; namely, gleefully spinning around on a child's merry-go-round while shouting incoherently about things he doesn't understand.  And that, friends, is what it means to be an American.

Hi everyone. A group of us were sitting here in a very blue part of a really blue state feeling, actually, pretty blue about how little we could do to impact this election besides write checks.

Although it has been great to be virtually ad free, there is a feeling of dislocation--not really knowing what is going on. We're tired of seeing the ongoing circulations emails trashing McCain or Palin, which don't do anything proactive to help Obama/Biden win on November 4th.

We have 5+ weeks to impact this election and we really do believe that you and I can make a difference. Let's go out and do it!

regards,

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/09/15/ohio/index.html

Race -- and the race for Ohio

Center-stage again, the Ohio contest between Obama and McCain may pivot on the impossible-to-handicap racial factor.

By Walter Shapiro

News

AP Photo/Chris Carlson

Sen. Barack Obama campaigns at Stebbins High School in Riverside, Ohio, Sept. 9, 2008.

Sept. 15, 2008 | COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The rest of the political world may be obsessed with Sarah Palin, but the four-letter word that comes up most often in conversations with Ohio political insiders has nothing to do with the overhyped vice-presidential nominee.

What shapes campaign discussions -- both on- and off-the-record with leading Democrats and Republicans alike in this tightly knotted industrial state -- is uncertainty over the electoral impact of Barack Obama's race. No one has the hubris to try to quantify the racial factor (unlike amateur political mavens who exude ill-informed certainty) and no one dismisses the chances of Obama winning Ohio's 20 electoral votes. But with early voting scheduled to begin here Sept. 30 (another first for Ohio), there is an undercurrent of nervousness among Democrats about the party's great experiment in nominating Obama.

"I know there is a real concern out there that some people who normally would be voting Democratic might not vote for an African-American," said Tim Burke, the Democratic chairman of Hamilton County (Cincinnati and its suburbs). "Gov. [Ted] Strickland has spoken openly about this." Campaigning for Obama in Jackson County in the Appalachian southeastern corner of the state earlier this month, Strickland declared, "I'm going to talk about the elephant in the room -- and I'm not talking about any Republican. The elephant in the room is what everybody's thinking but nobody willing to talk about ... it's race."

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In 2004, John Kerry came within 118,000 votes of winning Ohio and the White House. But while Ohio may be a swing state, it also shows unusual internal political stability, with only two counties changing their party allegiance from the 2000 to 2004 presidential elections. "The biggest difference between the Obama campaign and Kerry in 2004 is race," said Mike Curtin, an Ohio political expert who recently stepped down as the associate publisher of the Columbus Dispatch and continues as a consultant to the paper. "You can't avoid it, since Hillary Clinton trounced Obama here." While Clinton won the March 4 Ohio Democratic primary by a 53-to-45-percent margin, she overwhelmed Obama among white voters by 64 to 34 percent, according to exit polls.

It does not take a UFO hunter to find Ohio voters who believe that Obama is ... well ... alien. Having breakfast Friday morning at the counter at Paul's Restaurant in Whitehall, a blue-collar suburb of Columbus, retired aircraft designer Richard Beard stressed that he knew all that he needed to know to vote against Obama. "Anyone who won't salute the flag or say the Pledge of Allegiance isn't worth voting for. And Obama doesn't have an American birth certificate or one that you can believe. The one from Hawaii is a fake." But the bearded Beard, an original Ron Paul supporter who was wearing the black baseball cap that the NRA gives its $1,000 donors, would have been an unlikely Democratic voter even if Obama had been born in the Ohio State end zone on a football Saturday. Smitten with Palin, Beard said, "She doesn't throw in any of that doublespeak like other politicians."

Palin has unquestionably roused the Republican faithful, like financial planner Peter Stadler, who gushed over breakfast at Paul's, "She's dynamic. She's more capable than Barack Obama." Jon Seaton, John McCain's regional campaign manager in charge of Ohio and Pennsylvania, said, "We've run across a large number of Hillary Clinton supporters who were very much looking for a political home and were very interested in who McCain would pick as his vice president." But it is difficult to find evidence in the polls that Palin has done more than electrify the GOP's base.

A striking feature of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, which was released Friday, was that while McCain is winning the support of 90 percent of Republican voters, Obama is only picking up 82 percent of the Democrats. These differing levels of party loyalty -- which might (note the conditional tense) be attributed to Palin for the Republicans and Obama's African-American heritage on the Democratic side -- partly explain why McCain leads 48 to 44 percent in the survey. (A Quinnipiac University poll gave Obama a 49-44 edge in Ohio over McCain, which underscores why slavishly following the gyrating surveys can be an exercise in frustration.)

But polls, which tend to put the undecided vote in single digits, may understate the volatility of the race. In the Ohio Poll, 19 percent of the state's voters said that they could change their minds before Election Day and another 4 percent were undecided. "I think voters know less at this point about Obama than they do about McCain," said Eric Rademacher, the co-director of the Ohio Poll. "The people who were saying that they could change their minds are those who normally don't pay attention to politics until after the convention."

Chris Francis, who works for an international glass company in its supply-chain department, is a classic don't-bother-me-with-politics-yet voter. Over lunch Friday with colleagues at the Mad Greek Restaurant in Whitehall, the 30-something, goateed Francis said, "Usually about a month before the election, I start to read up on the candidates. But it's been a crazy summer, so I really haven't checked anything out." A Clinton voter in the primary, Francis has not been won over by the Democratic nominee. "I wasn't much impressed with Obama," he said. "He promises a lot of things that are out of his control -- like having a great job or cheaper gas prices."

Those who live with cable news droning in the background or check out the rolling national poll averages at Real Clear Politics three times a day can easily lose sight of the reality that many voters take a casual interest in the campaign this far from the election. Francis, for example, said about Palin, the woman who has launched a thousand talk shows, "I don't know much about her. She's from Alaska and her daughter's pregnant. That's about it."v

Karen Porter, an economically hard-pressed longtime waitress at Paul's ("I used to be on a beer budget, now I'm on a bus budget"), would be what political scientists call a "low-information voter," if only she were registered. Attracted to Obama ("I think he really cares about people in the middle class"), Porter is tempted to vote for the first time. When asked about his Republican rival, Porter said, "I don't know much about McCain. I hear a lot about his vice president. What's her name? The one from Canada."

Young voters and possible new registrants like Porter are part of the Democratic formula for victory in Ohio. But organization, a hallmark of the Obama campaign, may represent the Democrats' best shot to improve on Kerry's 2004 vote total in Ohio. With about 250 paid field organizers in the state and another 1,300 volunteers coordinating the precinct-by-precinct campaign, Obama has a significant on-the-ground edge over Kerry. Trying to hoard campaign cash in 2004, the Democrats farmed out much of their get-out-the-vote effort in Ohio to independently funded groups like Americans Coming Together (ACT) with whom the Kerry campaign was not legally allowed to share information. The result: The Democrats exceeded their vote projections in Ohio's cities and were overwhelmed in the rest of the state by a better organized Bush campaign that handled everything internally.

"We knocked on 100,000 doors in Ohio last weekend," Aaron Pickrell, the Ohio Obama coordinator, said over drinks Thursday night. "We know what the results were from those door knocks. If ACT had knocked on 100,000 doors in 2004, the Kerry campaign wouldn't have known anything about it. That's a humongous difference for us."

Since the moment that Barack Obama declared his epoch-making candidacy, 2008 has been described as a history-making election so often that the notion has become an instant cliché. But Ohio is a state where tradition dies hard. Which may be why Rademacher, the pollster from the University of Cincinnati, is close to the mark when he theorizes, "At the end of day, despite all the talk about how unconventional this election is, it may come down to the most conventional outcome -- a campaign decided by independent voters."

While the national electoral terrain appears to be broader than it was in 2004 with once reliably Republican states like Virginia up for grabs, there is no place more likely to be in the bull's-eye than the Buckeye State. In theory, it is easier for Obama to get to 270 electoral votes without Ohio than McCain. But, in reality, this is a state that should silence the doubters who wonder, "Why-o, why-o Ohio?" For Ohio has gone with the White House winner in the last 11 elections – and 2008 is apt to make it an even dozen.

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/09/23/tip_states/index.html

Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2008 09:15 EDTv
Tipping state: Colorado or Ohio?

When I give presentations about the election across the country or abroad, I usually talk about which types of exit poll or Election Day information that, were I to have it in advance, would probably tell me the winner of the presidential race. Can Barack Obama get 65 percent or more of the Hispanic vote? Does John McCain carry white women? Who wins Catholics? And so on.

Some analysts are doing this on a state-winner basis, and there is an emerging consensus around Colorado as the tipping point state. Stu Rothenberg, who has joined us here at Salon before to discuss his analysis of U.S. House races, makes the case for Colorado in his latest column. Patrick Ottenhoff of Electoral-vote.com seems to agree, though he tosses in New Mexico as well. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com ranks Colorado fourth, however, behind Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia, based on results from his multiple-iteration computer simulations of most-common tipping point states. (See down the right side of his home page for details.)

Click here for Ohio State graphic

As Silver correctly explains it, knowing that Colorado flipped likely tells you Obama also won the more competitive state of New Mexico; or if McCain wins Pennsylvania he probably holds more Republican-favorable Ohio as well. There is some new buzz about Obama taking North Carolina, which, were he to do so, probably means he will be the first Democrat since 1964 to carry Virginia, too. You get the idea.

But these are one-way results. Knowing Obama, not McCain, won Pennsylvania is less informative about who won Ohio.* That said, if I had to ask for a single state result, with the possibility of that result coming in either way, I’d still say I want to know the outcome in Ohio. (*If knowing the answer to the generic question “Who won swing state X?” seems redundant with knowing that a specific candidate in fact won that state -- it is not -- consider this: If I told you McCain won Vermont instead of just saying I'll tell you the winner of Vermont, the first provides more revealing information because learning that Obama carried Vermont provides no real insight into the overall outcome.)

Why Ohio? Because knowing that Obama won Colorado does not preclude scenarios where he wins there and loses the election because, say, McCain flipped Michigan and New Hampshire to red and held Ohio. And knowing that McCain won Virginia** may also be inconclusive if Obama can flip Colorado/New Mexico/Iowa, or just Ohio, he doesn’t need Virginia. (**The Washington Post today has a story about a new poll showing Obama now leading McCain in the Commonwealth.)

Are there scenarios where Obama wins without Ohio? Sure: The Colorado/New Mexico/Iowa is the most obvious one. But Ohio’s winner, either way, still seems like the one piece of future info I'd like to have today to predict who is going to win in six weeks.

― Thomas Schaller

Bob Chiodo, Equity Home Mortgage LLC

bobchiodo@equityhome.com

*Estimated rates for the week of September 22

• 30 yr conforming=5.75 - 5.875
• 30 yr jumbo=6.125 to $600k
• 7/1 ARM=5.625 - 5.75
• OR VA=5.50       
• OR State Bond=5.75  Conventional or FHA

I held off on my doing my weekly update in the hopes that some stability would return to the markets. Since that hasn't happened, I still wanted everyone to see what the rates were doing and to assure our market participants that we are still lending money and real estate transactions are still closing. Although underwriting is tougher, it's business as usual as far as I am concerned.

By now everyone is aware of the bill that is trying to get through Congress. I'll leave the analysis of the bill to those far more qualified. There is no question that something has to happen and it has to be big. I have read many different points of view on it. Right now, there are more questions than answers. That said,  it's going to happen and it will be big. Congress knows it too. The hope is that it will free up our capital markets - without which there would be a standstill in business. The consequences of it not happening are far worse for all of us. And, there is a good chance that the total costs won't be anywhere near the $700 billion. Remember, the design is to buy assets (loans) that are tough, if not impossible, to sell. The government will buy them at discounted prices and, the hope is, will be able to sell these loans later at the same or higher prices. It actually makes sense, and if done correctly, it shouldn't cost us taxpayers that much money. It will allow the banks and investors to get rid of these loans which should allow them to start lending money again. The banks and investors will take their losses but that should be it. Business back to usual, right? Don't count on it - count on much more regulation, less profits for the banks and investors, less risk taking, etc. Out of this mess will come new ideas on capitalism, government involvement in the markets, and risk management - to name just a few. Interesting times!

I want to comment on a letter that was sent to a borrower from their current lender. An agent asked me to review it and, I have to say, I was very impressed with the letter. It seems that this particular borrower had taken out a Neg Am loan that was due to recast. Without fully explaining how that works, the bottom-line was that the payment was going to go up by over 100%. There was no way that the borrower was going to be able to make that payment. Of course, due to the Neg Am, the borrower was upside down in the home -the loan was higher than the home's value. The lender, without being asked, offered to freeze the loan payments for 3 years at an interest only (no longer Neg Am) equal to the current below market payment. That payment worked out to be less than 4% interest only. If the borrower paid more, the overage would go to principal. After the three years, the loan adjusts to the scheduled interest rate but that would require only an interest only payment for five years. After that, the loan converts to a 40 year fully amortizing loan. Overall, it's a fantastic deal. The borrower gets a 4% rate for three years and can afford to stay in the home. No foreclosure or short sale for the bank. The neighborhood doesn't get impacted by having the home being sold at a loss. The bank keeps getting paid. This was a win-win for everyone. And, again, the bank did this without being asked. It's really good to see that the lender was taking the initiative and was doing the right thing. There is hope out there after all!

Have a great week…..I welcome your comments or calls.

 *Rates quoted are for the use of Realtors and others in the real estate/financial service industries. They are not meant to be a quote for an individual situation. Rates change daily and those above are only listed to assist market participants by keeping them informed of current interest rates.  Quotes are usually shown for a 30 day lock period and a 1% origination or discount fee.

 Copyright© 2008. Betty Jung. All rights reserved. 

Disclaimer: All information in this post is subject to change without notice. Subject matter is an opinion, is not guaranteed, may be time sensitive, and may be based on information collected from several sources which may or may not be reliable at the time of sourcing.  

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG'S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com). 

Respectfully yours,

Aaron Michael
Click to check out Aaron's band

Herzlichen Dank, liebe Betty!

That's Betty and her daughter Shauna. Before we even got to A Wool Gathering we hit up Young's.

Then there were some tents:

Which involved bunnies:

Also alpaca's that like to get funky:

I got some yarn:

We went on a hike.

We saw Dave Chappelle's very long driveway and possibly his trashcans...?

The day ended with more (gigglier) ice cream! Does it get any better than this?

Você conhece uma pessoa chata e que só pensa em dinheiro?

Eu conheço uma abusada que se não tivesse estudando no Brasil ja havia saido daqui ,alem de tudo ela é feia e se acha muito horrivel ela chegou até a quebrar seu celular pra  seu pai dar um novo pra ela.

Ela se parece com a ugly betty porem a betty é legal e sensivel, ela é feia e consumista ela acha que só porque em são paulo tem uns predios grandes ela acha que lá vai ter uma vida ganha. 

João XD

"Conte d'hiver" est la seconde collection hiver de La Baronne Daphnée.

Poésie,sophistication et humour c'est la combinaison gagnante de cette collection.S'y entremêlent les rangs de perles et les chaînes;tandis qu'un faon et un agneau se font breloques.

Une composition riche et un romantisme baroque pour héroïne chic et provoc'.

Si vous aussi vous souhaitez adopter un de ces mignons ça se passe ici ...

Freshness have been kind enough to let the world know that graffiti artist Insa and shoe troubadour Ruth Shaw are collaborating and things are seriously peachy. The bullshit is this:

"Objects of desire often display shared facets: woven into their fabric are threads of intrigue and fantasy, creating an intangible need. Heels themselves are often, of course, objects of desire and objets d’art in their own right. Now the fantasy of ‘Insa Heels’ has become reality…"

Except it isn't bullshit, it's a truth, and coupled with the fact that as soon as you throw those fragile doe ankles of yours into 'em, your desirability stock is going to have bankers fucking screaming!

Get a pair from the 17th Sept o8... I expect to see you in them. The style is the 'Cigarette' and comes in three colourways, Lewisham, Hackney and Chelsea, all are pictured beneath.

Lewisham

Hackney

Chelsea