De nombreux organismes humanitaires participent à l'information par l'intermédiaire de cartes mises à jour quotidiennement. Ce service est d'une utilité majeure pour les sauveteurs sur le terrain.

Cyclone Nargis (Birmanie) : carte de situation du 17 mai 2008

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - ReliefWeb

Cliquer sur la carte pour une vue élargie

En premier lieu, on a tendance à insister sur le fait qu'après une catastrophe naturelle, beaucoup de volontaires médicaux étrangers sont nécessaires. En fait, il s'avère que les pays touchés par ces catastrophes couvrent presque toujours les besoins vitaux immédiats. Dans ce cas, seul le personnel spécialisé au plan médical et n'existant pas dans le pays affecté est nécessaire.

En second lieu, on lit souvent dans les médias que les épidémies sont inévitables après chaque catastrophe naturelle. En réalité, les épidémies n'arrivent pas spontanément après un désastre et surtout il n'existe aucun cas vérifié d'épidémie due à la présence de cadavres sur les lieux d'une catastrophe. Par contre dans des pays où les conditions sanitaires sont régulièrement insuffisantes et où il n'existe pas d'action d'information de la population et de prévention contre les maladies endémiques à ces pays, les épidémies sont possibles à tout moment, même sans catastrophe naturelle. Un rapport de l'OMS souligne que les personnes "tuées par des catastrophes naturelles sont généralement saines au moment de leur mort et donc très peu probablement être une source d'infection à d'autres. Les micro-organismes responsables de la décomposition des corps ne sont pas capables de causer une épidémie. La plupart des agents infectieux disparaissent dans les heures suivant le décès des personnes".

"Cependant, les épidémies peuvent arriver dans une période comprise entre 10 jours et un mois après l'événement". L'alimentation souillée, le manque d'accès à l'eau potable, l'insuffisance ou l'absence d'équipements sanitaires et d'assainissement créent un risque potentiel pour l'apparition et l'expansion de maladies infectieuses surtout dans le cas des personnes regroupées dans des abris provisoires et en situation de surnombre, donc de grande promiscuité.

Vue générale d'un camp de réfugiés à Beichuan

REUTERS/Stringer (CHINA), 18 mai 2008

De même, on entend souvent que la population affectée est très choquée, ce qui est vrai, et le soutien psychologique dans certains cas n'est pas suffisamment assuré ou même absent. Mais les rescapés d'une catastrophe ne sont pas impuissants à veiller à leur survie et à celle des autres. En fait, il existe un instinct de survie dans les cas d'urgence prouvé par le nombre important de volontaires qui s'unissent et s'organisent spontanément pour essayer de porter secours aux plus touchés. Par ailleurs, il est indéniable que les catastrophes touchent plus sévèrement les groupes vulnérables et faibles et en particulier les femmes et surtout les enfants et les personnes âgées.

Un enfant cherchant de la nourriture sur les bords du fleuve Yangon, près d'un village

REUTERS/Strringer (MYANMAR), 19 Mai 2008

Enfin, "l'oubli rapide" par les médias fait souvent penser qu'un retour à la normale se fait en quelques semaines. En réalité, les effets d'une catastrophe naturelle de l'ampleur du cyclone Nargis en Birmanie ou du séisme au Sichuan dureront longtemps ! N'oublions pas que des régions entières, voire même des pays se voient dans l'obligation de recevoir encore plus d'aide dans la période post-catastrophe afin de pouvoir mener à bien la reconstruction non seulement matérielle, mais aussi économique des régions affectées. Il suffit de se reporter à la situation actuelle des pays touchés par le tsunami de 2004 pour comprendre les efforts de reconstruction.

En ce qui concerne la Birmanie, le rapport quotidien de l'OMS du 18 mai 2008 signale les points suivants :

- un plan d'action commun et une esquisse d'activités pour le Groupe Santé est prêt pour les 3 à 6 mois à venir.

- L'OMS continue à mobiliser les donateurs pour le secteur de la santé.

- un appui psycho-social va probablement donner lieu à une importante publication dans quelques semaines et des directives et des protocoles ont été envoyés dans la langue locale en Birmanie.

La première sont les catastrophes naturelles. La Chine, avec son immense territoire, est sont souvent frappée de différentes calamités. La désertification près de la capitale amène son lot annuel de tempête de sable. Les inondations en été, frappant surtout le sud, sont extrêmement sévères.

La deuxième sont les désastres écologiques. La majorité des villes les plus polluées du monde sont en Chine. Lorsqu'il y a des désastres environnementaux, les autorités cherchent toujours à camoufler. Le barrage des Trois gorges représente toujours un point d'interrogation.

La troisième et plus importante sont les épidémies. Une nouvelle épidémie ayant tué au moins une vingtaine d'enfants vient de faire surface dans les médias, après avoir été camouflée quelques temps. L'absence d'une presse et d'institution indépendante du pouvoir rend le contrôle épidémique très obscur.

Ne soyez pas surpris si quelque chose du genre vient nuire aux JO. Le Parti communiste a voulu défier la Nature et lutter contre les dieux... Qui sème le vent récolte la tempète.

Ity no andro ratsy faha-12 taty amin'ny faritra.

Mikisaka miakandrefana izy io ary mamonjy an'i Diego raha ny fizotrany. Mbola any amin'ny 190km miala an'i Diego ao amin'ny Avaratra atsinanana no misy azy ity, nefa hitondra orana betsaka sy rivotra mahatratra 80km isan'ora. 250km ny savaivony ary miadana ny fifindrany. Voakasiky ny filazana loza manambana daholo ny faritr'i DIANA, SAVA ary SOFIA.

Ampitampitao malaky azafady

Tsy prturbation araka izay voalazan'ny sary intsony fa sary talohan'ny nahazoany anarana io an!

Ny vinavina ho làlana hizorany

ireo làlana nizoran'ny andro ratsy hatrizay

This is not a science blog.  This is not a politics blog (ok, maybe a little).  There will be a bit of both to make the point to all you Henny-Penny types who've swallowed the hook.  i know most of you are well meaning folk who really do care about disparities and inequities and suffering of all kinds.  Who really doesn't love the environment?  Some do more than others of course, but does anybody really think that there are people who are so blinded by narcissism at the expense of clean air, clean water, and beach front property? 

The environmental movement has badgered, brow-beat, and terrorized everyday people, professionals and politicians alike into drinking every batch of Kool-Aid they stir up.  So much so that the world is upside down and scared to death to breathe. They've successfully pocketed the U.N. and every anti-capatalist under the warming sun. The sad truth is that they're useful dupes of an Orwelian cabal bent on subjegating the masses.

Oh, how i wish i were just a nut.

Consider this: this great push we've felt over the last 10-15 years to reign in carbon emmissions from the engine of human progress has the singular goal of instituting global policy as fast as possible. The reason is this: if they're successful in passing Kyoto type policy, global warming happens and by some stroke of luck happens to be linked SCIENTIFICALLY to some environmental catastrophe "they" can either say "we were too late" or "we need to take more herculian actions". If global warming doesn't happen they can claim they stopped it by taking the proper steps.

If they don't get to institute these draconian measures to "save the planet" and global warming doesn't happen... the secular, globalist, holy grail of science and it's cadre of "pedophile" priests will lose ALL credibility. They're on the verge of it now. Watch them run around trying to save their butts.

Many women seem inept at winning the battle of the sexes, attracting the right man, avoiding hit-and-run relationships, identifying worthless men before yielding sex, dodging the Manipulating Man, avoiding the violent man, capturing the Marrying Man, avoiding accumulation of more ‘baggage’, inspiring faithfulness, avoiding the man’s game of shack up, living with a man for more than a few years, and growing into the right person to hold a man for life.

Some women adopt stupid rationalizations: Get pregnant to capture or hold a man. A married man is better than nothing. We’re great in bed, so he must love me. If we don’t cohabit, I’ll lose him.

Other women ignore their nature. A woman does not absolutely need a man, but she wants company or assistance at specific times in life. Primarily she wants a dependable relationship with someone stronger and perhaps more influential in shaping events that impact her and her children. She wants help to brighten her future in a society dominated by catastrophes, powerful people, and unexpected events. She wants comfort in needy times and seeks companionship to prevent loneliness. She particularly wants all these things late in life.

Feminist theory, dogma, and propaganda brought these conditions to women. Fortunately, women are now beginning to see the light. 

[More about the Dark Side at posts 23, 47, 50, and 71.]

Bergenske Catastrophes har nyleg avslutta innspelinga av debutplata, og den kjem ut ein gong på nyåret. Bandet burde ha nok av låtar å velge mellom til plata, noko denne sida med heile 19 (!) ulike demoar tyder på. Om nokre av desse kjem på plata i nyinnspelt form er ikkje godt å vite, men kanskje ein eller fleire av låtane som ligg på Urørt kjem med. Under finn du iallefall ferskaste skot på stamma med poplåtar.
06.12 - Bergen, Hulen
Catastrophes - That Boy is Ready for Eternity
Catastrophes @ Myspace

Indietronika-duoen Attention Now! leverer sin hittil beste låt med Hard to stay alive. Du finn låta både på Urørt og Myspace. Silje og Stian jobbar med å ferdigstille eit album, men sleppedato er ikkje klar enno. Dei er også aktuelle med ein remix for danske Oliver North Boy Choir, som vert å finne på plata deira som snart er i butikken.
Attention Now! - Hard to Explain
Attention Now! @ Myspace

Det har lenge vore stille rundt Mary Me Young, men bandet kom i haust med EPen The Mary EP. Dei spelte nyleg i Trondheim, og kjem til Oslo rett før jul for å gjere ein konsert, der du sikkert kan sikre deg eit eksemplar av EPen også. Under finn du ein smakebit.
19.12 - Oslo, Spasibar
Mary Me Young - My Strenght
marymeyoung.com

Bluegrassgjengen Ila Auto kjem med plate nr. 2 Over The Next Hill rett over nyttår, og allereie no er første singelen Little Honey å høyre både på radio og nett. Berre ein ny konsert er annonsert pr dags dato, men her kjem nok fleire til etterkvart.
22.02 - Oslo, Herr Nilsen
Ila Auto - Little Honey
ilaauto.com

Gutta i Gatas parlament har den siste tida vore mest synlege som medlemmar av Samvirkelaget, men har av den grunn ikkje lagt GP på hylla. Snarare tvert om. Den 13. desember kjem "gateplata" 93 til Infinity, som vert å rekne for ei halvoffisiell utgjeving av både gamalt og nytt materiale. Men dette er ikkje einaste albumet dei kjem med. Til våren neste år kjem dei med si tredje offisielle plate. På gatasp.no kan du tinge 93 til Infinity, samt sjå ein festleg trailer for plata, der dei stel uhemma frå alskens action-filmar, samt fjorårets pseudo-doku Death of a President.
13.12 - Oslo, Spasibar
14.12 - Oslo, Sub scene (fri alder)
Gatas parlament - 93 til Infinity trailer (video)
gatasp.no

Eg saksar frå kommentarfeltet:
Erik og Kriss har plateslepp på andreplata si, Verden vil bedras 14. januar. Dei planlegg storkonsert på Rockefeller den 19. januar, men skal også gjere fleire andre konsertar framover. Duoen er for tida aktuelle med singelen Dra tilbake.
07.12 - Lommedalen, Helsethallen
08.12 - Bardufoss
12.12 - Stavanger, Javel
19.01 - Oslo, Rockefeller
25.01 - Vang, Jotnerock
01.02 - Mosjøen, Topic
16.02 - Stranda, Torget
23.02 - Stryn, Basecamp
12.03 - Porsangermoen
30.04 - Vollen, Sjøstrand (Maifestivalen)
Erik og Kriss - Dra tilbake (video) (youtube)
erikogkriss.no

"Retro":
Davy Jones' Locker har lagt sin EP Healthy People Prepare to Die (2005) ut for nedlasting, men då kanskje ikkje på den beste måten for eit såpass lite band. Gå til nettsidene deira for å laste ned ein torrent med EPen, og sjekk om der er liv. Lite aktivitet akkurat no.
Davy Jones' Locker - Healthy People Prepare to Die (torrent)
davyjoneslocker.net

"Afterwards", by silvercharm, Nov. 19, 2007
 
The pile of groceries still sits on the kitchen floor, untouched from yesterday's expedition into town. I loaded up my SUV with as much supplies as it would hold, but had to quit because that was the day I earmarked for canned goods. I never thought I'd be relying so heavily on packaged foods, but now there's just no feasible way I can grow or make everything I used to be so accustomed to eating.
 
It sure was a luxury having access to fresh fruit and vegetables, spices, coffees, any food you could want. . . you name it, we could get it, no matter where in the world it was from.
 
While I've always liked gardening, nowadays it's become an intense passion and played a large role in choosing this house. My garden now covers almost the entire property, and I'm also using the neighbours' yards to grow all the fruit, vegetables, and herbs I can. Occasionally I check the map I've drawn up, and raid nearby fruit trees. This coming fall I'm resolving to learn how to can, like my parents did when I was little. Otherwise I'll exhaust whatever supplies are left, and there aren't any new ones being brought into the town. Or any town, for that matter.
 
There are no long haul tractor trailers coming up from the States, and no planes running. The airport and the skies are as empty and quiet as a tomb, and that's no understatement. Other than the birds which have been growing in numbers the last three years. Or perhaps that's all in my head. Just like whenever I pass by the phone, or the front door. I still half expect the phone to ring, or a letter to come through the mail slot, or to receive an email. Or to see a courier or milk truck go down the street. Or to open the door and pick up the newspaper. Or see a sailboat out there in the bay.
 
 
Flipping through all the channels this morning was energizing, for a while, after a few weeks of purposely avoiding it. But there was only more silence from my radio, and new scanning equipment. I've tried everything many times, but so far there doesn't seem to be anyone out there, at least not anyone who happened to be on the air at the same time. I still have power, and plenty of batteries to keep things going for years to come. Just how long who can say. There aren't any factories running, of course, so I suppose eventually I'll run out of many things.
 
 
One of my favourite ways to pass all the time I now have is to write, and catch up on reading, here in my new house by the beach. Okay, this isn't my new house; it's not like I paid a dime for it. But I'm here living in it, and something tells me I'll stay. I'm not sure where else I'd rather live. Once you drive around and size up all the houses you think you might like, and settle in, it doesn't seem worthwhile to look any more. There's just so much to preoccupy yourself with.
 
The worst thing about moving by far is dealing with the bodies. I'll never forget the first time I decided to see what this place looked like inside. I was sold by the architecture and layout of the property.
 
 
It's a beautifully restored Craftsman type home, and the back door was unlocked. Stepping into the kitchen, I was nearly overcome with the stench of death. There were no remains in the first rooms I walked into, but I found the first corpse down the hall. It looked like that of a teenaged girl, who collapsed coming out of the bathroom. The place was stuffy and hot, and I clamped my hand over my mouth to stifle the urge to throw up, staggering back outside as quickly as I could.
 
 A few days later I summoned the nerve to go back. Trying another house seemed too daunting. I'd left the back door open, so maybe it would be tolerable in there. At least long enough to drag the bodies out one by one, and clean the place up. I don't think it's an exercise I want to revisit, ever.
 
 
I can't help myself from searching, especially for a woman, but the more I try to make contact with anyone, the greater that sinking feeling is. That maybe I am truly, and utterly alone. Seems best not to think about it, if I can. Otherwise I just know I'll go irrevocably mad. If I don't kill myself first. But then, I guess I owe it to the species to keep going.
 
 
I'll probably never give up hope completely. It was conditioned in all of us from an early age, that we should conform to routine, and expect things to continue into the forseeable future in much the same ways they always have.
 
I keep telling myself I just have to believe. Believe that one day I'll find survivors, or some will find me. It seems to make sense because if I am alive, there must be others, somewhere.
 
It's funny living here by the ocean. In my wildest fantasies I never thought I could afford to live in such a place. From my last place down the road I used to look out the window and see people playing in the sand with their kids and family dog. Boats of all types out on the water. Their owners taking their pride and joy out for the first run of the season. The parking lots would be jammed, and I'd hear engines speeding up, doors being closed, stereos pumping out music of every genre. I could rely on going for a stroll to people- watch. Check out what everyone was doing and wearing, and see which familiar faces I'd encounter that particular day.
 
And best of all, check out the girls. What I would give to find one now, just one. Such a far cry from yesteryear, I must admit.
 
But now the streets are empty of people, devoid of all human life. The street lights still work, and traffic signals still blink, but there is no traffic, and no pedestrians. Just scores of abandoned vehicles, with skeletons sitting inside. Some still strapped in and clenching the steering wheel in a death grip. Others sprawled out of open doors, their skulls wearing perpetual grins. In the months afterwards, I'd have to stop, and move cars out of the way. I just hated pulling on a shoe or an arm, dragging bodies out of the driver's seat. I thought all this would get easier, over time, but it didn't. Eventually I decided it's better to stick to the same streets.
 
This year seems the hardest. Although I've become a pretty good marksman, and have my pick of weapons, I still don't enjoy guns. I don't like the feel of them, nor the idea of having to use them. But you do what you have to, when nature begins to reclaim her territory. I used to lament the decline of animal species, as our cities kept growing larger, sprawling ever further until rural areas were no more. Countrysides were replaced by so-called industrial parks, malls, and rows of condominiums which all looked the same.
 
But now the tide has turned, Wildlife is everywhere. It's such a joy to see birds again, and indigenous species such as deer and foxes running loose and without worry. But they of course have predators. Bears, wolves, and even cougars are roaming all over town. And they're not after rats, the coyotes took care of that situation.
 
 
I'm always on guard for the packs of roving dogs, far beyond taming now that there are no more people. The place I grew up in, which was always one of the safest areas in the country, has never been so dangerous. You have to keep a knife and gun on you when you venture out somewhere.
 
Lately, for reasons I can't seem to pinpoint, security has been on my mind. It never used to be. But I'm readying myself for another foray to my old stomping grounds, the neighbourhood where my parents lived, and where my wife and I were. It's impossible to not go back to where you spent your childhood, before all hell broke loose. Only this time I'm going to better prepared. For what I can't say.
 
It all started a few months ago. Getting the feeling you're being watched. I remember yesterday very clearly, because it happened twice. I'd been out for a swim. The water was as clean as I'd ever seen it, and I swished my feet through the tidal pools which dotted the shoreline. A shape in the bushes lining the parking lot caught my eye, but I was too far away to tell whether it was an animal or perhaps a shadow, or just my mind playing tricks on me. When I noticed things seemed slightly different, even finding my towel rumpled, I still didn't think anything of it.
 
 
But there was no explanation for the mud prints beside my car. There weren't there when I parked.
 
By the time I decided to go out that afternoon, the incident was forgotten. The video store wasn't far away so I took a coffee and walked there from home. Turning the corner onto the main drag I was struck by the absence of fresh graffiti, or the litter you'd expect to see on a busy urban street. Things like candy bar wrappers, bus tickets, or cigarette butts. But of course, the street was deserted, as it has been for years, other than the occasional squirrel, dog, or stray cat.
 
 
Weeds have become quite abundant, but I suppose you could say they're no longer weeds. They're permanently part of the landscape now. Except they kind of remind me how things have changed. Even more haunting are those automatic sprinkler systems. I still jump when one comes on suddenly.
 
A clump of wildflowers overflowed from the planter outside the video shop, and I stopped to admire them. They smelled fresh and wonderful and pure. I laughed, and realized how silly it was, wishing I'd brought my camera, instead of my pistol. I didn't need a camera. The world, or what little of it I could access by car, was now constantly at my disposal. Since there was no need to work, I could go see these flowers any time I wanted.
 
My thoughts were interrupted by that creepy feeling of being watched again. I looked up and down the street, glancing into windows, but saw nothing suspicious. As I browsed the shelves of movies in the video place, I couldn't resist furtive looks towards the door, in case something should approach the store. Every sense stayed on high alert until I got home.
 
Lately it seems to be happening more frequently, the more I think of it. You see a shadow, or hear a branch creak in the neighbourhood. Now that there is abolutely no background noise from traffic, lawnmowers, or home construction, you hear everything. Or maybe every sound is magnified. But you'll return to the yard and wonder whether you put the sprinkler nozzle there, or not. Wasn't the garden hose lying at the edge of the sidewalk, and not on it?
 
Once I realized the magnitude of the disasters, it became clear that life would never be the same. Somehow I had been spared, and whatever had infected the water had also subsided. The weeks that followed afterwards were tortuous and tough, but I was buoyed by knowing there just had to be others, more survivors.
 
If I am , if I still exist, then it follows logically that there must be others, somewhere. And I know I just have to believe.
 
 
As the years have gone by, I grew certain this town is completely deserted. But now I'm not so sure of this. Something is out there. That primeval, ancient instinct you get when you feel you're being observed is cropping up more and more often of late, and I find myself increasingly tense.
 
I guess that's why I haven't put away the groceries. This morning when I came back in from the garden, I stopped dead in my tracks. I think my heart may have stopped beating, too. My butternut squash just didn't grow legs and walk away. Like it or not someone, or some thing, took it. It's gone.
 
I hate to admit it, but from now on I'm keeping a gun on me at all times. And somehow I think this is going to be my last journal entry. At least for a while.
 
I haven't seen a soul in years, not a trace that anyone else exists.
 
But I've never stopped trying find them.
 
What scares me is that maybe they've found me. Whoever or whatever they are. 
 
 

 Counting on custom messages for avoiding catastrophes

• Available
• Kain & Able
• Stable
• Stable - Able
• Able Ailing
• Snackable
• Prevail
• Pre-snailable
• Snailable
• Failable
• Assailable
• Assemble-Bill
• Attainable
• Trailable
• Entertainable
• Intermittent
• Tainted
• Paintable
• To no avail
• Patient
• Determined
• Detainable
• Determinable
• Indeterminable
• Indetrimental
• Indetermined
• Incremental
• Undeterred
• Preferred
• Sustainable
• Maintaining
• Aiming

Usually the question is asked when things go completely south in this stage we call our world.

Curiously enough, the question is hardly asked when things are going well.

Admittedly, it is sometimes asked under irreverent conditions, for example, by a Red Sox fan watching that dribbler treat Billy Buckner like a Roman arch.

In other instances, the question is legit as in the death of a child or in the aftermath of a particularly gruesome infamy (the Holocaust) or even natural disaster (the tsunami which hit Thailand back in '05).

I don't intend to fully explore the intricacies of what is often referred to as the "problem of evil" or "the problem of pain" [I think CS Lewis did a more than adequate job in his aptly titled tome, "The Problem of Pain", so for a treatise check it out].

Of course for a concise answer to this so-called eternal question, click here or here.

I bring this up because recently through an interesting set of ahem, "circumstances", I found myself at the book written by the prophet Habakkuk (circa 605 B.C).

The book is basically a dialogue between the prophet and God. In the first 2 chapters, Habakkuk argues with God because God's ways seem unjust to the prophet. It seems like it's the story of a man trying to comprehend the ways of God, Habakkuk was not the first and well, he is definitely not the last.

The first 4 verses of this book consists of Habakkuk's first complaint.

The prophet basically asks the question that crowns this post. Of course, not in those exact words but the idea is clear,

The oracle which Habakkuk the prophet saw.
How long, O LORD, will I call for help,
And You will not hear?
I cry out to You, "Violence!"
Yet You do not save.
Why do You make me see iniquity,
And cause me to look on wickedness?
Yes, destruction and violence are before me;
Strife exists and contention arises.
Therefore the law is ignored
And justice is never upheld
For the wicked surround the righteous;
Therefore justice comes out perverted.

The answer LORD gives is stunning, but I'll save that for a later post (Of course nothing is preventing you from checking it out).

Step 1: we lay out the scenarios.

Step 2: we plot the scenarios and their possible outcomes using a semiotic square, a simple heuristic diagram a little like Aristotle's square-of-opposition.

Step 3: we try to draw conclusions from our plot of the scenarios.

STEP 1: laying out the scenarios

The Giuliani Scenario as described by Barnes in his Weekly Standard article, The 2 Man Race

... Contrary to reports, Giuliani is not ignoring the early states. Well, Iowa maybe. He's campaigning aggressively in New Hampshire and leads in the Fox poll in South Carolina. If he stayed out of every state until the Florida primary, that would be fatal. The early winner would gain all the media attention and swamp him.

But Giuliani's focus is on Florida and then on the big-state primaries on February 5 in California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey. He, too, has the funds to compete. His scenario--breaking out in Florida and blowing away the field on Super Tuesday--is credible in my view.

However, he could do well on Super Tuesday and still not lock up the nomination. The same is true for Romney. Should that happen, the Romney scenario sees conservatives drifting to him as the alternative to the more liberal Giuliani. Former congressman Vin Weber, a Romney adviser, says there's a ceiling on how many Republicans will back Giuliani, one that will keep him from winning the nomination. We'll see ... etc., etc.

The Romney Scenario (a) as described by Barnes in his Weekly Standard article, The 2 Man Race

... Romney has an early-primary strategy aimed at Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He's poured money into those states, broadcast TV spots, and built organizations. Fox News polls show him leading in Iowa and New Hampshire and a close second in South Carolina.

If he wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, he'll have history on his side. No presidential candidate in either party has failed to win the presidential nomination after finishing first in Iowa and New Hampshire--that is, since 1972 when Democrat Edmund Muskie managed the dubious feat of winning both but not the nomination. Romney also has the best shot to win the Michigan primary on January 15. He grew up in Michigan and his father George was governor. The other Republicans have all but ignored Michigan.

So the Romney scenario is obvious. He wins early and takes off like a rocket. His name identification soars. Just as significant, he'll have the money--his own, plus funds he's raised--to compete fully on February 5, Super Tuesday. I think this scenario is believable. Of course it's just a scenario, nothing more ... etc.

The Romney Scenario (b) as described by Dick Morris in a speculative piece titled WHAT IF THE IOWA POLLS DON’T CHANGE?

What if the current polls in Iowa are the final result? ...

... [a] Romney victory in Iowa would virtually guarantee a win in New Hampshire. The two states, in media terms, are practically one. Two-thirds of New Hampshire lives in the southern part of the state that watches Boston television every night. Since Romney served as governor in Massachusetts, he will probably win New Hampshire anyway. A win in Iowa would make it a fait accompli.

Two victories would make Romney the front-runner for the Republican nomination. Coupled with a Giuliani stumble in Iowa, it could totally change the dynamic of the Republican primary. Here’s what might happen:

Rudy could come to be seen as too antagonistic to the Christian right, and moderates might once again turn to McCain as the less inflammatory option, sidetracking the former New York mayor.

Huckabee, coming in a strong second, could take off and become the poor man’s Romney, taking advantage of his greater consistency on social issues, his Christian (read: non-Mormon) beliefs, and his support of the Fair Tax as an alternative to the IRS.

Republicans would likely panic about the idea of a Mormon candidate and worry about his prospects, making Huckabee and either Rudy or McCain viable as alternatives.

Thompson will be forced out, having lost his position as the socially conservative answer to Rudy ...

... The race would be thrown into chaos. Anyone could win. Romney would have the momentum, but doubts about his ability to win as a Mormon would make his lead unstable. Huckabee would be gaining, but he may not be well enough known to make it. Giuliani could still recover, given his strong national standing, but would be hobbled. And McCain would still have his immigration position hanging over his head, but as Rudy falters, he might pick up the slack.

Then again, Hillary could open up a large lead in Iowa as her juggernaut gets going. And Rudy could, at least, finish a strong second to Romney in Iowa, and perhaps beat him, making it a Giuliani-Romney runoff in the main primaries, which Rudy probably wins. Then the general election match-up would be Hillary vs. Rudy, as we have all anticipated.

But what if?

STEP 2: Plotting the scenarios using a semantic square

Here are the possibilities as elaborated by Barnes and Morris plotted in a semiotic square:

How to read the square:

1. Giuliani breaks out in FL to capture CA, NY, IL, NJ AND Romney fails in the early state primaries---RESULT: Giuliani wins the GOP nomination
2. Giuliani breaks out in FL to capture CA, NY, IL, NJ AND Romney wins the early state primarie---RESULT: inconclusive
3. Romney wins the early state primaries AND Giuliani does not break out in FL to capture CA, NY, IL, NJ---RESULT: Barnes: Romney wins the GOP Nomination -or- Morris: Chaos ensues
4. Romney fails in the early state primaries AND Giuliani does not break out in FL to capture CA, NY, IL, NJ---RESULT: inconclusive

STEP 3: Reflections and conclusions

(i) (2) and (4) both return inconclusive readings according to our interpretation of the Barnes and Morris scenarios. Put differently, it is possible that the Romney and Giuliani campaigns could both achieve their objectives and still fail to achieve a lock on the nomination; it is also possible that both campaigns could fail in their objectives. Conclusion: these scenarios are far more explanatory than predictive.

(ii) (1) reflects the common wisdom according to Morris. For Romney to take the early primary states (3), is the special case that for which Morris tries to account. For Barnes (3) is at least as plausible as (1) if not more so.

Why do their opinions differ?

Answer: Morris is flummoxed by Romney's Mormonism. His surmise: Republicans will balk at a Romney nomination, which we surmise to be a projection of Morris himself balking at a Romney nomination. Our surmise: Republicans are far, far less concerned about Romney's Mormonism than are journalists, party elites, the chattering commentariat, political consultants etc.---just as Republicans are far, far less concerned about Giuliani's progressive social views than are journalists etc., etc. (Here is an example.)

(iii) We still, however, agree with Morris: Romney could win the early primary states AND Guiliani could fail in FL etc. AND the party could still fail to decide for Romney.

Here is why: Romney has disastrously misread the meaning and intent of the new primary calendar, a calendar designed to suppress the significance of the early primary states in favor of a defacto national primary. Regard: strategists draw distinctions between high and low mobility environments. In a high mobility environment---where you can move your forces quickly---it makes sense to invest only lightly in your perimeter or in static defenses in favor of a highly mobile ready-reserve that you can quickly deploy wherever you need it. In a low-mobility environment, the opposite obtains; since you cannot move your forces around easily, you post them where you need them to be when hostilities break out, e.g. at key points on your perimeter, in hard points along your invasion corridors.

The primary calendar of e.g. 2004 constituted a high-mobiliy environment as the campaigns had time to regroup and re-organize according to their estimations of the evolving situation after each contest.

The 2008 primary calendar, however, constitutes an exceedingly low-mobility environment as the tempo of the contests precludes any learning, adapting, and re-allocating.

Romney's campaign is optimized for a high-mobility environment. Barnes describes it this way: "[Romney] wins early and takes off like a rocket. His name identification soars. Just as significant, he'll have the money--his own, plus funds he's raised--to compete fully on February 5, Super Tuesday." In other words, Team Romney hopes to suddenly transition from a low-efficiency organization characterized by massive and low ROI media buys in a few targeted locales to a high-efficiency operation that can achieve a far-higher ROI because of its newly won name recognition, earned media etc. Romney will then begin spending his reserve cash etc.

Giuliani, on the other hand, has optimized his campaign for a low-mobility environment by concentrating his efforts not on the high-prestige but low-delegate-returning early states but rather on high-delegate-returning populous states, e.g. Fl, CA, IL, NY, NJ---i.e. Giuliani has organized and deployed for a national primary, a national primary that will effectively lock into place the national poll numbers. Since Giuliani is already a nationally known and respect figure, his ROI is much higher for spending that has been much lower. No sudden re-deployment or organizational transformation is necessary for the Giuliani campaign; what they need to be in place is already in place and has been for months. Also: Giuliani can, and has, allowed e.g. the activities of Huckabee and McCain to divide and disperse Romney's attentions in the early primary states. In far simpler terms: Giuliani's scenario requires far less input to produce far more output.

We believe that this is where Barnes, Morris, and Romney are wrong: their analysis supposes the 2000 or 2004 primary calendar. Giuliani, however, has organized differently.

History will decide the issue.

We invite criticism. We also acknowledge that our exercise lacks empirical rigor, based as it is on logical-semantic relations, descriptions developed by others, and a simple distinction.

yours &c.
dr. g.d.

P.S. Corporations and government entities sometimes use scenario-planning for long-range forecasting. The method is simple bordering on trivial. You attempt to develop rival scenarios based on you or your team's estimation of how critical variables will trend over time. You then plot your scenarios against those variables articulated as dimensions. You then use the plot as something of a map to help you plan for or against contingencies. The scenarios themselves often turn out to be ridiculously wrong---but that's OK---the point is not to predict the future; the point is rather to e.g. help you prepare for surprises, clarify your goals, identify critical variables, and develop a more critical awareness based on a longer-term view. For our purposes the Barnes and Morris scenarios are interesting to the degree that they help us understand how people are thinking about the primaries.