Mark Penn's opinion: "By my count, the electoral map now puts the race almost dead even but leaning slightly toward Barack Obama, with 273 electoral votes in his column. Obama has several alternative roads to the White House — both through the Midwest and the Southwest. Ohio would give Obama a solid margin of victory, but he can win without Ohio by putting together Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado to secure 21 electoral votes. He is now ahead in those states, in double digits in Iowa.

But if Obama loses Ohio and wins the others, New Hampshire becomes a critical state. A loss there (where John McCain has considerable popularity) would create a deadlock — 269 to 269, not at all an unlikely end to an unlikely political season.

McCain must win Ohio, hold onto Nevada, and take back New Hampshire and one other blue state to get past 269 and have a clear win. His target last week was the values-oriented voters in Minnesota and Wisconsin; this week and for the foreseeable future, economic events are likely to be front and center."

Marc Ambinder's report:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM, NH (26 electoral votes)

Marginal toss-ups:  FL, MI,  WI, PA, OH (95 electoral votes)

True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA (27 electoral votes)

Lean McCain:  GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, SD (58 electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 216 electoral votes

McCain: likely + leaners = 200 electoral votes

Tossups: 122 electoral votes.

New Mexico moves to lean-Obama based on the Obama campaign's confidence there and the relative lack of attention McCain is paying to the state.

Colorado, Nevada and Virginia are more competitive than they ought to be at this point.

New Hampshire moves to lean-Obama for meta-environmental reasons and because of the strength of his recent polling.

Florida remains a toss-up; the Obama campaign has a larger organization there, and McCain is underperforming along the I-4 corridor.

No reason just yet to move Montana into the tossup category.

By David Usborne in New York

Wednesday September 10, 2008

Democrats may not want to believe it but there is fresh evidence that the addition of Sarah Palin, the "hockey mom" Governor of Alaska, to John McCain's ticket is winning him women voters in droves.

In a tidal shift that could prove decisive, enormous numbers of women who previously favoured Barack Obama have had their heads turned since the introduction of Mrs Palin, according to a new ABC/Washington Post poll.

The Palin phenomenon shows no signs of fading, in spite of a drip-drip of news revelations that hardly flatter her. Yesterday, the Washington Post reported that after becoming Governor in 2006, Mrs Palin started charging taxpayers a "per diem" allowance for days she spent in her private home in the town of Wasilla, where she was once mayor, instead of in the mansion in Juneau that she has never cared for.

Nor does there seem to be much room left for Mrs Palin to defend her claims repeated in Republican television advertisements that she opposed the now infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" project in Alaska, with clear evidence that, at first, she supported the wasteful scheme.

But for now, at least, women seem to be falling in love with Mrs Palin. They are not the only ones. A Gallup poll last night showed Mr McCain opening a 15-point lead over Mr Obama among independent voters who are not members of either of the main parties.

However, it is the hockey mom wars that will preoccupy the generals of both camps. While white women favoured Mr Obama over McCain before the conventions by 50-42 per cent, the picture today is dramatically reversed, according to the Washington Post/ABC survey. Now they back Mr McCain 53-41 per cent. That is a 20-point change.

"Your poll is wrong," David Plouffe, the Obama campaign chief flatly told a Washington Post reporter on hearing the numbers. "I don't think you'll find many others that back up a 20-point reversal. We certainly are not seeing any movement like that. Polls, from time to time, particularly on the demographic stuff, can have some pretty wild swings."

At Obama HQ in Chicago, they certainly hope so. Yet there can no longer be any doubt that the race has been transformed since the end of the St Paul convention and that it can be traced back to the anointing of Mrs Palin, the "lipstick pitbull", and the blinding rock star status she has since assumed. Mr McCain's campaign events are drawing crowds the likes of which he has never seen before.

The question, however, is whether it is a love affair that will last. The Obama ticket has several avenues of retaliation, including deploying women surrogates to try to plug the dam. Hillary Clinton was in Florida speaking for him on Monday and plans are afoot to send forth Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri soon.

Rather than attacking Mrs Palin directly, they will try to focus voters' attention on matters of policy, in particular those women who voted for Mrs Clinton, whose policy priorities are just about diametrically opposed to Sarah Palin's.

If the McCain menagerie cannot believe its luck, it is not admitting to it. Strategists have seen a doubling in just seven days of "Women for McCain", female grassroots volunteers for his candidacy. They are now to be deployed across the swing states to canvass for him every Monday evening between now and election day. (Monday is when most husbands and boyfriends are watching football on TV.)

By joining it, Mrs Palin has become just the ticket for Senator McCain, even though a few Republicans still fret she might overshadow him. "She's a daring and exciting pick that has really rejuvenated support and respect for Senator McCain," campaign spokeswoman Crystal Benton said. "When she said she'd 'stand up to the ol' boys network in Washington,' that really inspired a lot of women."

In a sign of the campaign's growing confidence in her, final details have been agreed for the Governor not simply to give a sit-down interview with ABC, as was originally expected, but to give the network's main anchor, Charlie Gibson, full access over two days beginning tomorrow in Alaska.

Gibson should, however, also have the opportunity to ask some pointed questions. Particularly the per diems claimed by the Governor when she reportedly spent 312 nights in Wasilla over 19 months. Also her husband, Todd, reportedly claimed expenses from the state for trips that he made.

Can soccer moms really swing US elections?

Sixteen years ago, Bill Clinton's campaign mastermind Mark Penn identified "soccer moms" as a key group of voters. This group of white, suburban, middle-class voters – so-called because they spent a significant amount of time ferrying children to and from sports activities – helped propel Bill Clinton into the White House.

In 2004, George Bush's then strategist Karl Rove focused on the so-called "security moms" who could be scared into voting Republican by playing up fears of terrorism after 9/11. This backfired because there were not enough of them to influence the race. Democratic women were more interested in healthcare, which John Kerry failed to talk about, so they failed to vote for him.

In 2008, pollsters have settled on the phrase "Sex and the City voters", because of the surge of interest among unmarried women. Barack Obama has consistently polled well among women voters, even if Hillary Clinton won the lion's share. Two months ago the polls showed them overwhelmingly supporting Mr Obama over John McCain.

The arrival of self-styled "hockey mom" Sarah Palin may be changing that. But the surge of interest in her among women, as reflected in the latest polls, also reveals that there is no such thing as a monolithic "female vote". The single, low-income women who turned out for Mrs Clinton – some 18 million – are increasingly balanced by Republican women, ecstatic about Mrs Palin's deeply conservative religious views.

http://tinyurl.com/WomenVotersRejectLIES

* * *

Don't EVER forget this (Senator John McCain is Back!) :

But there's a much more compelling reason the Evan Bayh would be a terrible selection. He is extremely close to the loathsome Mark Penn:

For years, Penn and his wife, Nancy Jacobson, have been close advisers to Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Jacobson put together Bayh’s finance team during his aborted presidential bid, and previously served as national finance chair for the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). Penn was the DLC’s longtime pollster and worked for Bayh during his last Senate race. The couple has also been associated with Third Way, the centrist think tank Bayh helped organize in 2005 that many in Washington viewed as a vehicle for his presidential run (the DLC obviously belonging to Clinton).

Bayh gets major play in today’s New York Times for being on, and possibly even atop, Obama’s vice-presidential short list. He has many attractive qualifications. But in choosing Bayh, Obama would be pairing himself with someone awfully close to Mark Penn. Would it bother Obama’s people to have Penn whispering in their vice president’s ear? The official answer, conveyed by Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor, is “We aren’t commenting on the VP selection process.” The unofficial answer is, “You bet it would!”

That may or may not be sufficient cause to scotch Bayh’s VP prospects. But if it isn’t, Penn is right back in the presidential race—if not in an official capacity, then certainly in a functional one. “Bayh is the one guy who could get Penn back in the mix,” a Democratic pollster told me today. “One guy” isn’t much. But it’s a long way from “finished.

General Wes Clark Speaks about NATO, Russia and Georgia

• Several moderate-to-conservative Democrats want Obama to be more specific about his plans to gain more traction in their states.
• Obama raises $51 million in July and finishes with 68.5 million in the bank. McCain raised $27 million and finished with $21 million in the bank in July.
• WaPo: Bush Administration, in waning months, is trying to push changes that would greatly expand domestic spying.
• Colbert King: Mark Penn's internal advice to Hillary could have been written by a white supremacist.
• Are Mark Penn's close ties to Evan Bayh fatal to Bayh's chances as Veep?

• Another conservative partisan finds Jerome Corsi repulsive.
• WaPo's Dan Balz: The next three weeks will be critical and unpredictable for the candidates.
• NY Times: As of yet, Team Obama has not made a concerted effort in Arkansas.
• Obama returns from vacation with a shot back at the Republicans.
• NY Times: Romney still concerns a number of conservatives, particularly evangelicals.
• NY Times compares the two candidates differing approaches to the regulation of the financial services markets in light of the recent economic crises.
• The infamously accessible-to-the-media John McCain is now being kept away from the press with overbearing restrictions. What are they afraid of? Gaffes and temper tantrums, mostly.

• WaPo: The GOP in Alaska is in big trouble.

That's exactly what Obama needs. To pick a Veep that puts Mark Penn in his inner circle.

BRILLIANT.

McCain, Still the One for Washington Lobbyists

McCain: Putting Personal Ambition First

• Politico:  "Obama Nation" author is a slime bucket, and always has been.
• Bill Kristol, who is often wrong and generally cannot be trusted, claims Colin Powell will endorse Obama and speak on Veep night at the Democratic convention.  UPDATE: As anticipated, within moments Kristol is once again proven to be an error prone hack -- Powell has sent an email debunking the rumor about speaking at the convention.
• Gallup daily tracking poll:  Despite McCain's attack ads, Obama's lead widens to poll's largest margin in weeks, 48-42%.
• Salon: John McCain, Internet Dunce.
• Mark Warner, former VA governor and current Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, will be the keynote speaker at the Democratic Convention.
• NY Times Op-Ed:  The genius behind Obama campaign texting its Veep announcement.
• Ohio to allow early voting in many areas, causing the anti-vote GOP to already whine about potential "vote fraud" (defined to mean when voters vote for non-GOP candidates in large numbers).

• Team Obama has a blueprint for winning North Carolina.
• WaPo's Balz:  McCain's campaign strategy seems remarkably like the recently leaked Mark Penn emails and memos from Hillary's campaign.
• Of the 200,000 newly registered voters in Virginia, 64% are in Obama's strongest age demagraphic, under age 35.
• In a shocker, Obama leads McCain by 5-points in Alaska.

We've been waiting for something like this to come out.  If this is as good as it gets, then we're in for a treat.  But I doubt America as a whole will be taking any indulgence in the war of words between our political leaders.  Maybe it's just not our political leaders.  Like it or not, they do represent the thoughts of millions.

Not to beat around, but this time what I'm specifically referring to is a memo that Atlantic Magazine has gotten a hold of.  It's a March 2007 writing of former Clinton campaign chief strategist Mark Penn, that he suggested she bring in to the campaign against rival Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination.  The memo set out to challenge the "American roots" of Obama, who did have a different background and upbringing than some other Americans.  The memo had things of, "all of these articles about his boyhood in Indonesia and his life in Hawaii are geared toward showing his background is diverse, multicultural and putting that in a new light.  Save it for 2050."  It continued, "it also exposes a very strong weakness for him -- his roots to basic American values and culture are at best limited."

Let me go ahead and save you the trouble and get this next phrase out of the way...OH MY GOD!  Let me preface this by saying, thankfully Senator Clinton did not choose this direction of her campaign and eventually chief strategist Penn was let go (for other reasons).  Even still, let's look at what was suggested.  What do you think was meant when Penn commented on Obama's basic American values and culture in saying that they were limited?  Because Obama was raised in Indonesia and Hawaii he doesn't have what it takes as far as basic American values and culture?  Or maybe because of which, makes him less of an American than you or I?  Well here's another question, what are basic American values?  Well, I can think of ten of them right off the top of my head.  They're in the Constitution, at the head of the Amendments section.  So Penn's accusation of Senator Obama of being, "not at his center fundamentally American in his thinking," would ring true if Senator Obama knew nothing of those first basic ten.  But maybe Penn meant that Obama doesn't share the same idea's, customs, or institutions as other Americans.  Regardless, that's a powerful accusation.  He might as well tell him he's not American.  Oh wait, here's one he can use; he was raised by a mother who's white, so now his ability of being African-American comes in to question too.

Not for nothin', even though this was a "lone gunman" saying this, I wouldn't be surprised at the number of people in our nation who actually feel that way.  There are a lot of people in this country.  Many of them may not like our Democratic nominee for a number of reasons.  He wants to raise taxes, his healthcare plan, he's too liberal, he's too inexperienced, he's black, he's too black, he's not black enough, he's not attractive, he's long-winded, he's just good rhetoric and nothing else, he's this, he's that.  That bottom-line is, you do not have to vote for him for whatever reason you see as valid.  It is your opinion to voice and that's likely one of our most basic American values.

Click here to view the article from the Atlantic Magazine.

The nitty-gritty of this whole memo from the charming former strategist for Sen. Clinton's presidential campaign: Barack Obama didn't spend enough of his childhood actually in America to truly be American.

"It also exposes a very strong weakness for him -- his roots to basic American values and culture are at best limited. I cannot imagine America electing a president during a time of war who is not at his center fundamentally American in his thinking and in his values,"

And just who is this dashingly valiant sentinel of all things American? This guy:

Just the man to represent to the world all the things Americans hold dear.

The summer months must be quiet - even if there are wars going on.

I watched John Stewart last night - good show as always. But dear John came out with 'We should be doing a show on which fruit has Christ's name written in it' - or something like that, I didn't write it down.

John also does a piece, a sketch, a real look at politics - 'Best F*&king News Coverage - EVER!' or something like that - 'tis funny though.

The really big guy who is also dumb, not in real life but in the sketches, smashes CNN's mail box with a baseball bat - or a TV with CNN on it. 'Tis funny, too. So, what am I getting at?

Well, CNN claim that they have the best Political team on TV - or is it cable? Dunno - but it is one of them.

Now Jack Cafferty is good, and I mean really good - Jack isn't a prima-donna, he says it as he sees it - and you have to have respect for that.

This story took my interest...

A policy memo by Sen. Hillary Clinton's one-time chief strategist challenging Sen. Barack Obama's "American roots" could make it difficult to close any remaining gaps between the former rivals, the magazine writer who revealed the memo said Tuesday.

In a March 2007 memo, Mark Penn, Clinton's former chief strategist, wrote, "all of these articles about his boyhood in Indonesia and his life in Hawaii are geared toward showing his background is diverse, multicultural and putting that in a new light. Save it for 2050," according to Atlantic magazine writer Joshua Green.

But she didn't use it.

Green noted that Clinton did not pursue the strategy Penn suggested during the contentious Democratic primary battle, which resulted in Obama winning more delegate than the former first lady and locking up their party's presidential nomination.

Proof she didn't use the strategy.

"What's going on right now is that a lot of Obama supporters and fundraisers are trying very hard to retire Sen. Clinton's debt."

As he said he would - NOTE: Hillary supporters.

So, after reading the story: "Memo could keep Clinton-Obama rift open"

The answer should be a simple; No! She could have used that strategy but didn't - that doesn't mean rift - it means that one of her campaign wanted to go 100% negative and she didn't - negative yes, but not to the degree Penn wanted to. That doesn't cause rift - that should be a springboard to unity.

In an op-ed in the Politico, former top strategist Mark Penn to Sen. Hillary Clinton said negative ads are often effective in forming public opinion around a candidate, and specifically pointed to the McCain campaign's recent ad featuring Paris Hilton and Britney Spears as an example of an effective television spot.

Related: Memo could keep Clinton-Obama rift open

"Fair or not, as advertising it did its job: It used humor, stuck viewers with memorable images and created a debate, just as Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 ‘Daisy’ ad, Walter Mondale’s ‘Red Phone’ spot 20 years later and Hillary Rodham Clinton’s ‘3 a.m.’ commercial in 2008 did," Penn wrote.

Watch: McCain's "Celeb" ad paints Obama as out-of-touch celebrity

Penn, who was behind Clinton's headline-grabbing "3 a.m." ad that questioned Obama's readiness to lead during a national security crisis, also said the Illinois senator should have responded more effectively to the Hilton/Spears ad.

"The Paris Hilton ad also bore a Republican political trademark — attacking a candidate’s strengths rather than the candidate’s weaknesses," Penn wrote. The spot attempted to portray Obama’s leadership for change as something fluffy and useless. Obama did not immediately hit back on the air."

Penn, who was ousted from his formal role with the Clinton campaign last spring, faced fresh criticism earlier this week after newly-released campaign memos revealed that he advocated painting Obama as foreign.

"His roots to basic American values and culture are at best limited. I cannot imagine America electing a president during a time of war who is not at his center fundamentally American in his thinking and in his values," Penn wrote in a March 2007 memo to campaign colleagues.

Former Clinton strategist Mark Penn, writes in the Politico, that voters publicly condemn negative advertising and suggest they would never be swayed by it. His experience says that when reality and research differ, it is the research that is wrong.

“In 1996, my colleagues and I designed a new kind of research for President Bill Clinton’s reelection bid, in which voters were shown campaign ads in public places like shopping malls. The same voters were then interviewed privately, in an atmosphere where they let their hair down and spoke candidly. Not surprisingly, voters admitted that negative ads sway their ballot box choices.”

Of course, we here at PUTSCH, have said so before…

în rest sunt confirmări ale disputelor interne din campanie pe care Hillary nu a fost capabilă să le rezolve.

Pentru cei care vor să aprofundeze subiectul aici găsiţi şi memo-urile din campanie.

Inquiring minds want to know.

Penn in December 2007 on Plan for Two-Way Race Against Obama: "Release the Tapes"

August 11, 2008 8:17 PM
Correspondent Jake Tapper

In a December 30, 2007 memo written on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Mark Penn writes to his fellow Clinton staffers that after the caucuses, if Obama "is riding a high we will have to take him down."

He runs through a series of potential attacks against Obama -- he has taken a bunch of liberal positions that make him unelectable, has been inconsistent on Iraq, has flip-flopped on issues, and voted present a number of times in the Illinois legislature instead of taking a position.

Then, playing out a number of scenarios, Penn writes that if they come out of Iowa and it's a two-way race with Obama, "on Friday we do a media interviews (sic) and basically say that he is unvetted, discuss his ever-changing positions. Release the tapes. Create immediate pressure that deprives him of oxygen.'
SOURCE

"Okay gang, what can we do next?"

"Let's create a splintered faction that says they won't vote Obama but will instead vote McCain."

"Good idea. What else?"

"When McCain unfairly attacks Obama over and over, how about we all just remain silent."

"No problem. We're good at that. What else?"

"How about Bill Clinton appear absolutely lackluster about Obama?"

"Good. Hillary, will you tell him?"

"Hey Hillary, how about we leak a memo from your campaign camp about how you tried to smear Obama during the primaries."

"I was never negative."

"Yeah yeah, we know. But just say it was all Mark Penn's doing."

"Oh well, sure, we can do that."

"Anyone seen Nancy Pelosi?"

"Absent as usual."

"I have an idea! It's time for a sex scandal."

"Great. Who can provide that?"

"What about John Edwards? He portrayed himself as a family man. And his wife has cancer."

"That's really juicy."

"Hey, how about impeaching Bush?"

"No Dennis, we're only looking for ideas to undermine ourselves."

"Sorry. I was trying to be responsible."

"I know one - Now that the Edwards affair is public, how about Howard Wolfson declare that if Edwards had been out of the race before Iowa, Hillary would now be our nominee."

"Good. Let's ignite those crazy PUMAs even more."

"What about Bob Kerry making another comment about Obama that helps McCain."

"Call him up."

"Howard, I think when Obama names his VP, we should all argue over the choice. In fact, some of us should just say it downright stinks."

"How about we give Hillary to McCain as his running mate?"

"Hillary, will you do it?"

"Sure, anything for party unity."

"Okay, another big idea."

"How about we register more Republican voters?"

"Wonderful. Now, for the final clincher. What can it be?"

"How about we impeach Bush?"

"Dennis, you're not listening. Who invited you here anyway?"

"What is this, some kind of dysfunctional family?"

"We're trying to be, Dennis, but you're not helping."

"Howard, I've got it - After the Republican convention, we OFFICIALLY ENDORSE John McCain!"

"Perfect! Meeting adjourned."

******************

Now, I have an idea. Why don't we all get our shit together and get Obama in the White House. The problems we face are TOO BIG and we need him for leadership and vision. McCain is Bush all over again and America cannot afford it any longer.

And Dennis, go impeach the bastard.

"The eight-page blockbuster, “The Front-Runner’s Fall,” draws on internal memos, e-mails and meeting notes to reveal what the magazine’s September issue calls “the backstabbing and conflicting strategies that produced an epic meltdown.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12420.html

Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton's former chief campaign advisor, is being skewered right now all across the internet because of a piece in this month's Atlantic that goes inside the Clinton campaign like never before.

Its author, Joshua Green, was given an abundance of insider emails and memos and with them he's able to shed new light on just how disorganized and toxic the Clinton campaign really was; Mark Penn was almost always at the center of hostility.

One thing top Clinton insiders consistently fought over was the question of "how negative" the campaign should go.

So in response to The Atlantic's expose, Mark Penn wrote a brief rebuttal in the The Politico this week which defends the idea that negative campaigning is a winning political strategy.

Penn writes:

"Clever negative advertising works. That is reality.

The tactic meets with media and pundit disapproval and spawns accusations of negativity, but the reality is that a clever negative ad can be devastatingly effective.

...

Some negative ads crystallize voters’ opinions without presenting any new information. That’s what was behind John McCain’s recent ad equating Barack Obama’s celebrity status with that of Paris Hilton — that viewers would associate the Democrat’s leadership with mere celebrity, not substance.

Fair or not, as advertising it did its job: It used humor, stuck viewers with memorable images and created a debate, just as Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 “Daisy” ad, Walter Mondale’s “Red Phone” spot 20 years later and Hillary Rodham Clinton’s “3 a.m.” commercial in 2008 did."

Penn is, of course, right.

Modern day political history is littered with examples of negative campaign ads that have been game changers.

Karl Rove got George W. Bush elected twice off this type of stuff.

How's it working in this campaign? Look at the polls: they've been tightening ever since McCain assumed the mantle of "Low Road Warrior."

I've said before that I feel that Obama has been "too soft" in responding to the recent Republican onslaught. It's not that Obama's afraid to hit back, he's just trying to elevate the discussion.

In many ways, Obama's hands are tied here though: he made a name for himself -- and arguably won the nomination -- by claiming to be a different kind of politician; one who wouldn't treat Americans like we're stupid by running the kind of ads McCain is now running.

But as one TPM reader rightly points out, if things don't end well for Obama, his decision to put 527 groups on ice may be something people look back at and wonder, "what if."

"If Obama loses, his decision to kill the 527's will be a key reason why. Right now they would be carpet bombing McCain into the stone age (no pun intended).

Move On on other 527's would have numerous ads on how McCain thinks Americans are whining about the economy, how confused McCain always is, etc. McCain would be on the defensive, instead of making Obama react to every new ad."

It goes without saying that there will be other factors responsible if Obama loses this race, in addition to his anti-527 policy.

But he euthanized Democratic attack dogs on the promise that his campaign would be able to push back effectively (and strongly) against the negativity everyone knew was coming from the Right.

So far this hasn't been the case. And people are taking notice.

The confused, delayed, sometimes weak, or sometimes not-at-all responses from his campaign are making Obama look less and less noble, and more and more anemic.

Americans may respect the idea of a candidate who takes the high ground, but they don't want someone who they perceive can't take a punch to be sitting in the Oval Office.

This issue of how hard Obama hits back is something he's got to get a better handle on. Like now.

Here's the story, culled from memos, emails, and interviews with campaign staff.

It's a terrific read, and entertaining as hell if you're not a Clintonite. Enjoy!