Huh? Brian Bannister? Where did that name come from?

The Prize Shop on the Altador Cup is finally open! Make sure you spend your points on good items ;)

Also, I've made a trade that is very easy to make an offer on! Just search the Trading Post for my username, 921chocodude. Go ahead and make an offer!

Mark Shapiro continues to amaze me. He is as smart as Ned Colletti is dumb. While Cleveland hoped to be in a pennant race, they are not, but that doesn't mean their front office is just going to stand-pat. Having already obtained one of the best bats in all of the minor leagues in Matt LaPorta, Mark Shapiro went at it again this weekend.

The Indians shipped off Casey Blake and Luis Perdoma, a minor league relief pitcher. Perdoma brought Anthony Reyes over from the Cardinals, who was once a top pitching prospect but never quite put it all together in St Louis. A change in scenery may be all he needs. However, the real coup was the deal involving Casey Blake.

Blake went to the Dodgers in exchange for Carlos Santana (explaining my obscure post title) and Jonathan Meloan. Carlos Santana is a young catching prospect signed as an IFA back in '04. He has the arm strength to remain at the all important catcher position, just needs to improve his receiving skills. If he can remain a catcher, this is a great acquisition because he can absolutely rake. He currently sports a .323/.431/.563/.993 line at Advanced Single-A.

Then there's Mr. Meloan. He's been the single best reliever in the minors over the last couple seasons, however his interest is in a starting role. His control has been suspect, so many have doubts about his ability to be a starting pitcher at the major league level. It remains to be seen how the Indians will want to use him, but if they wanted to he could end up with the 9th inning role as early as September this year. Meloan sports an electric fastball, with two above average breaking pitches: a mid 80s slider and a pitch I'd classify as a knuckle-curve of sorts that sits in the high 70s. An absolute gem of an arm, providing further evidence of Ned Colletti's stupidity.

Mark Shapiro on the other hand, is nothing short of brilliant.

Indian fans, you have a lot to look forward to.

Free institutions (the media) compete with authoritarian ones in making the Enemy a deadly force within the system. And this deadly force stimulates growth and initiative, not by virtue of the magnitude and economic impact of the Defense "sector", but by virtue of the fact that the society as a whole becomes a Defense society. For the Enemy is permanent. He is not in the emergency situation but in the normal state of affairs. He threatens in peace as much as in war (and perhaps more than in war); he is thus being built into the system as a cohesive power.

I think this is as relevant an analysis today of the "Global War On Terror" (GWOT)  as it was in 1964 of the Global War on Communism. It is not easy sustaining the emotional hysteria needed to justify a permanent war economy. One need only look at the total U.S. Defense budget for the year 1950 of $13 Billion to understand that it had been our practice as a nation to have high defense budgets only in times of war. But both the Cold War and the GWOT were presented as open ended wars without end. To justify our current base Defense budget of $700 billion, we not only need to inflate the potential of Al Qaeda, Iran and North Korea, we also need to create the possibility that the Chinese Army might one day become our mortal enemy in a Third World War.

Let us try to assume that the Chinese leaders are rational people. Their largest trade market is the United States. As you can see from the chart on the left their central bank current holds about 25% of all outstanding U.S. government debt. In what kind of insane strategy would the Chinese launch a war on the country with which they are so economically intertwined? But in the mind of the neoconservatives like John Bolton, we should continue to provoke China. After the March Presidential election in Taiwan, Bolton suggested that we should immediately recognize Taiwan, a step that 7 U.S. Presidents have refused to take.

China will not like this turn of events, but inevitably it will have little choice but to accept dual recognition. Now more than ever, the US -- and Europe and Japan -- must be assertive in supporting a strengthening democracy in Taiwan.

Of course Bolton's suggestion is the classic neoconservative "self-fulfilling prophecy" , destined if it was U.S. policy to provoke China.

For a productive society, the costs of maintaining a permanent war economy are prohibitive. Like a slow growing cancer the basic principles of the military economy are spreading into our other industrial enterprises. As the great industrial economist Seymour Melman pointed out,

From the economic standpoint the main characteristic of war economy is that its products do not yield ordinary economic use-value: usefulness for the level of living (consumer goods and services); or usefulness for further production (as in machinery or tools being used to make other articles).

More importantly the whole economic basis of the military contracting system is based around maximization of costs and of government subsidies. Lockheed Martin and Halliburton have only prospered by going way over budget while being monopoly contractor on any given project. When the Air Force published its manual for Cost Estimating Procedures it made clear that "estimating methods are based on projections from historical data" and that estimators were prohibited from using the classical industrial engineering approach of productivity improvement cost estimating. In other words, if the last model of tank cost X, then it is assumed that the next model will cost X + 15%. The New Joint Strike Fighter is a classic example.

The cost of Lockheed Martin's Joint Strike Fighter, already the most expensive weapons program ever, is projected to increase as much as $38 billion, congressional auditors said yesterday. That would bring the price of 2,458 F-35s to $337 billion, 45 percent more than estimated when the program began in October 2001.

And in the rare case where there is a competitive bidding situation, firms with inside clout on Capitol Hill or in the Pentagon, can often get the low bid thrown out. A classic example is Boeing's efforts to win the next generation midair refueling tanker contract worth $35 billion. Boeing had originally won the bid by bribing the Air Force procurement officer in charge of the contract. When this action resulted in conviction of the official on corruption charges, the Air Force awarded the contract to the European Airbus consortium that had already built tankers for Australia and Saudi Arabia. But Boeing was not finished yet trying to rig the game and managed to put enough pressure in Congress to force the Pentagon to reopen the contract.

The decision has widened the gulf between the European and American rivals. In Europe, officials say privately that reopening the tanker deal was a politically motivated decision in an election year.

It must be said that the Military Industrial Complex is in reality the Military Industrial Congressional Complex. So what could be done to rein in this behemoth that is absorbing so much of our collective wealth? The first step must be public education and even though the topic is hardly mentioned in the conventional media or the Congress, the public seems to understand that something is wrong. Gallup Polls over the last five years (left) have shown increasing concern that the government is spending too much money on the military. Although it has not yet reached the magic 50% number, one could believe that if the issue begins to get into the public discourse it could easily attract a plurality of voters. At that point the automatic votes that flow out of Congress for every military pork barrel project could be called to account. Last year's defense budget was $521 billion plus $200 billion in War supplementals. It would seem a goal in the near term would be to have a total military budget for 2011 of $440 billion. as I noted earlier in the year when I put forth a New Federalist budget.

I would start with the $90 billion in new weapons procurement and the $68 Billion in R & D. Take a 15% cut ($25 Billion) just like any corporation facing reality would. Then I would build a more “Fortress America Posture”-far fewer foreign bases, using the carrier fleet and the Marines as the rapid reponse arm. I would remove the permanent bases in Korea and Germany and bring those troops home.

That saving of $300 billion ought to be plowed into alternative energy infrastructure and other projects that would begin to seed a new industrial base for America. One that is not based on cost maximization and monopoly rents, but on the kind of competitive high tech marketplace that Silicon Valley has excelled at. Of course the only way to make this happen circles back to Marcuse's quote that open's this piece. The media must stop being complicit in creating the mental state of perpetual fear which is the breeding ground for the Military Industrial mindset. Whether that is possible is of course, another matter.

Without these other institutions in place, the authors say, trade by itself can do more harm than good. They point out that inequality increased after trade was liberalized in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Uruguay. Ten years after the North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect, Mexico's real wages are lower than they were before, and both inequality and poverty have grown. Many of the manufacturing jobs that came to Mexico in the wake of Nafta have since been lost to China, partly because China invested heavily in education and infrastructure while Mexico, lacking tariff revenues, couldn't afford to do so. According to Stiglitz and Charlton, every developing country that has succeeded in achieving rapid growth has protected its market to some extent until it was ready to dismantle trade barriers. China's growth, for example, escalated in the 1970's, before it lowered its barriers.

If NAFTA hasn't worked in Mexico, why would the CFTA work in Colombia? The U.S. congress was correct in tabling the CFTA, and the U.S. government should maintain trade preferences for Colombian goods in return for the blood and treasure that Colombia has put up to fight a drug war with no end in sight that is fueled primarily by Americans' insatiable appetite for illegal drugs.

The Yankees got Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from the Pirates for four Minor Leaguers on Friday. Nady is a right-handed-hitting outfielder, a commodity for which the Rays had been searching.

"It doesn't surprise me," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "That's the way they do things. They're going to buy people at the appropriate time."

I feel like there's some resentment there, no?

The Cleveland Indians traded third baseman/outfielder Casey Blake and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers for two minor leaguers on Saturday.

"Casey Blake is a gamer," Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said. "His experience and character will be a plus as we head down the stretch in the final two months of the regular season."

The Indians received minor league catcher Carlos Santana and right-handed pitcher Jon Meloan. Santana is hitting .323 with 14 homers for Inland Empire in the Class A California League. The hard-throwing Meloan is 5-10 with a 4.97 ERA at Triple-A Las Vegas, but he has piled up 335 strikeouts in only 262 innings in his minor league career.

I guess that's a decent haul for Casey, him not being a super star and all.  Somehow, though, I just don't feel right about it.  I guess it all comes down to the fact that I liked watching Casey play and I'm not that stoked about seeing a 5-10 pitcher next year.

Anyways, good luck, Casey.  You'll be missed.

Going once, going twice…Oromia sold!

Sold by Meles like a treasury bond

Sold to the highest bidder

China, Djibouti and Saudi billionaire

While Ethiopians are starving to death

Meles gave wheat farm land to Djibouti’s Prez

A large tract of land comparable to the size of Djibouti

Was handed over to the father and son with Meles’ authority

Badme, border with Sudan and now Djibouti?

All around great blows to his vanity!

Unable to serve and protect our sovereignty

On all counts, he is pronounced guilty!

Oromia being used and abused

And here is the latest “investment” trick they pulled

Let’s call it what it is, it’s not investment

It’s plain shenanigans, the nation’s divestment!

The rank and files fattening their pockets

Sporadically sharing some with their subordinates

But the large mass is in scathing poverty

Living to see another day, thanks to westerners’ generosity

Now, they can’t even farm their own land

Things are going out of their hand

Somebody stop this transaction

Our nation should not be sold on auction!

Read about the "Presidential investment" here.

Also check out these two stoies. China's "investment" and Saudi billionaire's "investment".

Just how drained is the Mets farm system? How unwilling are the Mets and Omar Minaya to deal any more top prospects like Fernando Martinez? How few viable options remain for the Mets to get a starting corner outfielder with just under five days remaining before the major league baseball 2008 trade deadline? Want my answers? Pretty frickin' drained. Seemingly completely unwilling. Casey Blake is another name you can scratch off the wish list.

Yes, as Jason Starks reports on ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3506150) one of the last remaining righty hitting outfielder options left on the market has been dealt, as the Cleveland Indians send Blake (also a third baseman) and cash to the Dodgers for a pair of prospects.

This is going to be interesting over the next few days. It's also going to be second-guesser heaven if nothing gets done and Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis stop performing to the level they have been lately. Lucky for Omar the Mets keep winning. As I already expressed in my last post "Cutting Corners", I worry that a deal gets forced at this point, but would still love to see a guy like Raul Ibanez with the Mets.

Omar Minaya Blowing Smoke

"I don't feel pressure. We're ready to go with our guys right now." -Omar Minaya  on the approaching trade deadline and picking up a corner outfielder from David Lenin's column on Newsday.com (http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-spmets265778181jul26,0,1968460.story)

*More trade deadline conjecture.

I could see the Mets making a non-outfielder move, perhaps strengthening the bench in some other way, or adding another good righty arm to the bull pen. To be continued...

Now, I'm not an expert on the Yankees farm-system. Hell, I couldn't even tell you much about the Pirates farm-system. But still, a trade has gone down, and it's time to look at who the Buccos got (good trade or bad trade is irrelevant).

Jeff Karstens:
Pinstripes Plus scouting report from 2006
Pending Pinstripes scouting report from 2007

He has spent some time in the majors (last year, I think)... but wasn't exactly impressive. Was that because he's not that good or because he was overworked? He seems like he could end up on the Pirates roster from the get-go.

Sheer diversity is Karsten’s specialty. Karstens does not have a dominating pitch. He sports an average fastball, curveball, and slider. His best pitch is an above average changeup (probably a 55 pitch on the 20-80 scale), which is where he generates a lot of his weak fly outs.

Ross Ohlendorf:
Pending Pinstripes early '07 scouting report
Pending Pinstripes late '07 scouting report
Sportsnet scouting report

Came to the Yankees in the Randy Johnson to Arizona trade. He also has some experience in the majors, as a reliever (after starting in the minors). He's the other option for the Pirates to use right now. Sportsnet seems to think of him as a middle reliever.

Ohlendorf was throwing in the mid to high 90s in college. He slowed down when he was with the Diamondbacks, settling in with a 92-93 mph sinker. The Yankees converted him to the bullpen toward the end of the 2007 season, and Ohlendorf let it rip again. He’s been clocked at 96-98 mph regularly. Ohlendorf’s breaking pitch is still a work in progress. He lost his curveball this season, and has tried a slider and a splitter to compensate. Nothing has worked yet, but the splitter is still promising. He featured tremendous control in 2006, and was wild within the strike zone in 2007.

Dan McCutchen:
Pending Pinstripes '07 scouting report
Pending Pinstripes 2008 scouting report

He's one of the top pitching prospects in the Yankees system (supposedly)... or he was before the deal. But he's 25 and in AA... do the Pirates move him up to AAA right now?

Basically, he’s got above average stuff and emerging plus control. The pick knock against him is a lack of a true out pitch - neither his curveball or splitter are true strikeout weapons.
...
The man has done nothing but eat innings and not allow runs since his super-senior year in college. He doesn’t have the traditional curses that force a pitcher to be converted to the bullpen - poor control, poor endurance, or hitters figuring him out after the 2nd time through the order.
...
I have a feeling that I’ve underrated him considerably by placing him at #12, and would probably have him higher than Marquez if he were 22 instead of 25.

Jose Tabata:
Pending Pinstripes 2007 scouting report
Pending Pinstripes '08 scouting report

Considered to be the "main guy" in the deal. If he develops, the Pirates "win". If not, they don't. That simple, so it seems. He's 19, and was playing in AA before getting injured (out for season?). He's considered a "head-case" by some, but is also compared to Manny Ramirez (would Manny also be considered a "head-case"?) They (the people) are still waiting for his power to develop.

Tabata’s extremely quick wrists and hands have drawn comparisons to Manny Ramirez. He generates amazing bat speed and profiles as a very high average hitter. He hasn’t shown much power yet, but some power should come eventually. He’s not going to hit 40 home runs, but he should sit in the 20s pretty comfortably. He has good plate discipline when he’s hitting well. He’s a good athlete with decent speed. On the bases, he steals bases more out of good instincts than blinding speed, but should steal a decent amount in the majors. In the field, he has plus range for a corner outfielder and may be able to hold down center while he’s young. His arm is strong for a left fielder and very solid for a right fielder.

So, those are the 4 guys the Buccos picked up in the deal. Good or bad deal for the Buccos? That's still TBD... and we probably won't know for a couple of years. But those are the 4 guys... at least as viewed by Pending Pinstripes. Let's see how this turns out.

Considering that McCutchen has had the best year of any of these pitchers, I can see why Pittsburgh wanted him, but taking a younger, more talented arm like Kontos in addition to left-hander Coke could've been more beneficial to them. Overall this doesn't really change what happened - it's still a great trade for NY.

The centerpiece of the deal was Xavier Nady. Nady, 29, has played all of his games in right field for Pittsburgh, and will push Brett Gardner, who is probably one year away from a starting role, out of the starting lineup for the Yankees. Nady could play left field for the Yankees, but because he has been a below-average fielder over his career, it is more likely that Nady would push Johnny Damon back into left field, and be the designated hitter. The only reason that Gardner is starting for the Yankees is because of Hideki Matsui's balky knee, which could get surgery by the end of the year. Nady is enjoying a career year in 2008, hitting .330/.383/.535 in 360 PA for Pittsburgh, posting a .323 EqA and a 30.4 VORP.  In terms of salary, Nady is getting paid $1.7585 million of his salary by the Yankees in 2008, and he is eligible for his last year of arbitration in 2009, meaning he will hit the free agent market in the 2009-2010 offseason. While if he continues his pace this year, he will be worth 2.6 more wins to the Yankees, but PECOTA is skeptical that his performance will continue, as they give him a WARP of 1.7 in 2009. The table below summarizes Nady's value in 2008 and 2009. Both WARP and MORP come from PECOTA, while team value is based on the formula outlined in Vince Gennaro's Diamond Dollars (a must-read), and the surplus is simply marginal value minus marginal salary. All dollar values are in millions.

	2008	2009
Salary	$1.76	$1.95
WARP	2.6	1.7
MORP	$5.15	$3.05
Team Value	$6.14	$2.93
Surplus	$4.78	$1.37

Damaso Marte was the second player who came over to the Yankees in this deal. Marte has been very good for the Pirates in 2008, both as a setup-man and as a closer when Matt Capps was injured. Marte has a 3.23 FIP, along with 9.06 K/9, an 11.6 VORP, and 3.087 WXRL in 46 2/3 innings. After Joba Chamberlain transitioned into the starting rotation, the Yankees have had trouble setting up the dominant Mariano Rivera (20.7 VORP/3.376 WXRL) using a combination of Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Edwar Ramirez, and Jose Veras, who are all right-handed. While Farnsworth has been pitching very well (2.04 ERA since June 1) the Yankees' pen ranks 3rd in the American League in WPA because of Rivera. However, Marte will probably be the #1 setup man for the Yankees, so the Yanks might have a more solid 8th inning option now. Marte is going to be paid about $700,000 by the Yankees for the remainder of this year, but he does have a $6 million club option next year. PECOTA projects Marte for 1 more win this year, along with 1.1 wins in total next year, and his contribution to the Yankees is summarized below. 2009 is italicized because it is optional.

	2008	2009
Salary	$0.70	$6.00
WARP	1.0	1.1
MORP	$1.32	$1.77
Team Value	$2.49	$1.90
Surplus	$2.17	$(3.71)

Moving on the the Pirates' booty in this deal, the player who will probably make the most difference for Pittsburgh will be Jose Tabata. Tabata, 19, is a Venezuelan native, and though he has struggled offensively (.248/.320/.310) in AA Trenton, he was the #3 Yankee prospect in 2008, according to Baseball America. His low slugging percentage could be linked to a wrist injury suffered in July 2006, but Tabata still ripped up the minors in 2006 and 2007. Tabata could reach the big leagues in 2010, and might be a good contact hitter with above-average speed in right field. Let's take a look at the tables to measure Tabata's possible impact on the Pirates, according to PECOTA.

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Salary	$0.39	$0.45	$0.88	$0.95	$1.25	$1.30
WARP	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.3	1.2
MORP	$3.05	$3.05	$2.82	$2.17	$2.17	$1.97
Team Value	$0.92	$0.94	$0.99	$0.83	$1.00	$0.76
Surplus	$0.92	$0.94	$0.50	$0.27	$0.14	$(0.15)

One thing is for sure: the smartest player in this deal is certainly RHP Ross Ohlendorf, a 25 year-old Princeton graduate who studied the economics of the draft for his senior paper. This is the second major deal that Ohlendorf has been involved in, as he was shipped from Arizona to New York in the Randy Johnson trade. Baseball America ranks Ohlendorf #9 for the Yankees, and says that he projects as a sinker-balling set up man, with a good fastball with excellent movement. 2008 was Ohlendorf's rookie year, as he was on the Yankees until June 27, when he was sent to AAA Scranton. At the major league level, Ohlendorf had a 6.53 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and a K/BB of 1.9, which are awful numbers. However, in AAA, Ohlendorf got five starts, posting a 4.03 ERA but an excellent 1.88 FIP, along with 5.0 K/BB. This is his first year of service time, so the Pirates will have him for 5 1/2 years of his career, probably as a reliever. PECOTA doesn't think so highly of him, though. Here are his projections, along with his monetary numbers, in millions.

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Salary	$0.14	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.50	$0.52
WARP	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.5
MORP	$0.43	$0.81	$0.69	$0.59	$0.81	$0.81
Team Value	$0.05	$0.26	$0.27	$0.23	$0.52	$0.56
Surplus	$0.30	$0.24	$0.26	$0.22	$0.41	$0.43

George Kontos, a 23 year-old righty, was at one point a highly touted prospect, but to quote Baseball America, "has a history of not living up to expectations." Kontos missed a good part of 2007 after he was in an altercation after not leaving a bar at closing time, and was inconsistent in his return, with below-average command and a tendency to give up the long ball. His 2008 campaign in AA Trenton has been solid, 3.93 FIP in 20 starts, with a 2.4 K/BB and a 0.92 HR/9 rate, which is a significant decrease. If he can continue his success and live up to expectations, he might be a back-of-the-rotation starter, but if his control or home-run rate slips again, he might not even make the bigs. Like Tabata, a 2010 ETA seems appropriate for Kontos.

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Salary	$0.39	$0.39	$0.40	$0.45	$0.45	$0.45
WARP	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1
MORP	$0.43	$0.39	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.43
Team Value	$0.05	$0.00	$0.11	$0.06	$1.00	$0.76
Surplus	$0.30	$0.24	$0.26	$0.22	$0.09	$0.00

The last player involved in the deal, lefty Phil Coke, isn't ranked on Baseball America's Top 30 prospects for the Yankees and doesn't have a PECOTA forecast, so all signs point towards Coke not reaching the majors. In AA Trenton in 2008, Coke has been above-average, with a 3.09 FIP in 19 starts and a 2.9 K/BB. However, being that he's never had any sustained success before, I think he isn't for real.

So, can Nady and Marte save the Yankees? Prior to this deal, the Yankees were on pace for 88 wins, or a 27.8% chance of making the playoffs. The extra 3.6 wins New York gets in this deal boost their playoff chances to about 59%! Using Diamond Dollars as a base, a Yankee playoff appearance is worth about $18 million dollars, mainly because they've played in October since 1996, nudging that value downwards, so Marte and Nady are worth upwards of $10 million in value this year. This deal shows that the Yankees know they have to make an upgrade somehow, and while their 91.6 wins is still on pace for third in the division, a variance that small is meaningless. So, the Yankees get about $6.6 million in surplus value this year and next, but this figure will jump to to $10.2 million if they decline the option for Marte on 2009 and instead buy his contract out for $250,000. While the Pirates gain about $4.8 million in surplus value, this trade is an example of really knowing where your team stands on the win-revenue relationship. Because the Yankees will probably be in the 85-90 win threshold in 2008 and 2009, these additions become very valuable, as each added win is worth $1.1 million, and each playoff appearance is another $18 million. On the other hand, each win for the Pirates is only worth $5000,000 in revenue, so while they got more wins from the deal (11.9 to 6.4) those wins do very little for them, as they probably will average around 80 wins until 2015, so three average contributors won't do much for Pittsburgh. So while Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington might have a better perception of future value in terms of wins, this trade shows that Brian Cashman knows how important wins and playoff appearances are for the Yankees, and he might have preserved that playoff streak, and his job, with this deadline deal.

The obvious puck movers in the Central Division come from Chicago - Brent Seabrook and Dustin Bfyuglien.  But I doubt even offering up Scottie Upshall (the likely tradebait here) would satisfy the Hawks management in such a trade.

My guess:  Ville Koistinen from Nashville in exchange for Scottie Upshall, possibly some picks/prospects involved on both sides.  The Koistinen-to-Philly rumors have swirled all summer.  Koistinen may not be ready for the top pairing, but he's young with tons of potential.  He'd fit in nicely with a young, up-and-coming team poised for a successful year.  Combined with the strong trading history between Nashville GM David Poile and Paul Holmgren (see Forsberg for Upshall and Parent, draft picks for Timonen and Hartnell), this is a plausible swap.

Thoughts, anyone?

UPDATE: It seems as if the deal has changed. Phil Coke & George Kontos have been replaced in the deal by Dan McCutchen & Jeff Karstens. I guess this won't be my "final thoughts" on the deal after all.


Brilliantly put (by myself, duh!) over at the thread at Bucs Dugout...

Most of what worries me, I’ll admit, is what everyone else is saying about the deal. I don’t know much about the 4 guys we got… just that Ohlendorf’s ML numbers this years aren’t very good, and that I’ve heard a ton about Tabata the last couple of years. I know no-one can predict the future or what-not, but everyone (seemingly) thinking the Yankees just stole X-Man & Marte from us is kinda worrisome. I know it’s stupid to listen to them because there is no way they know everything, but reading it everywhere is kinda… idk… worrisome.

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Grapevine: Unswerving Man of mark

The U.S. Senate was expected to approve a massive housing market rescue bill on Saturday and President George W. Bush was ready to sign it soon, amid questions about how much it will help.

... The 694-page legislation would set up a $300 billion fund under the Federal Housing Administration to help distressed homeowners get more affordable, government-backed mortgages and get out from under exotic mortgages they cannot afford.

Here is yet another example of treating a symptom of our economic ills instead of the disease itself.  Instead of addressing the root cause of declining incomes and benefits - high-paying manufacturing jobs lost to free trade with overpopulated nations and steadily rising overpopulation right here in the U.S. - we try to mitigate the effects by making it easier for people to borrow money to stay afloat.  It's exactly the same thing as treating the unaffordability of health care by providing government-funded insurance instead of by boosting incomes by bringing back all of the jobs that we gave away with our free trade global welfare program. 

All the while, the government calculates an inflation index, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, that makes it appear that incomes are keeping pace with inflation when, in fact, the CPI grossly understates increases in the cost of living  (something the government itself admits).  In effect, anything that rises faster than the CPI becomes unaffordable - especially health care and, more recently, housing. 

We don't want to continue mortgaging our descendants' future to keep up an illusion of prosperity, Uncle Sam.  We want our jobs back!!

Using my trading style there was 5 trades. The first trade went 38 pips into drawdown and paid out 30+ pips. If it was possible to take all 5 trades and used a 20 pip take profit on all 5 trades you could have made 100 pips. That is $100 if you had a $300 mini account. That is 33% growth in one week!!! Not too bad.

Here is my trades:

Well, with a big trade and a big win, what do you expect?

Here we go (even if it's 4:30 AM).

• With Yankee fans still swooning over the Nady-Marte trade (I'm still blushing), people forgot that Nady is an outfielder and have automatically labeled him as this years' DH. Well, basically it seems as though Nady will play LF because Johnny Damon is still rehabbing a troublesome shoulder. With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nady stick out there in LF. Nobody wants to see Johnny Damon's lollipop throws from left and Nady is a fine replacement (for now).
• The Nady-Marte trade was a 6-player deal. The Yankees lost Ross Ohlendorf, Phil Coke, Jose Tabata (the blue chipper), and George Kontos. To me, it's a great deal. Tabata was the most valuable player (from the NY side), but you can't overlook his attitude and development issues. Either way, he wouldn't have been playing for NY until 2011, so this is a fine deal (and Austin Jackson has moved ahead of him on the depth chart). Ask yourself this, are you really going to miss Ross Ohlendorf or Phil Coke? Exactly, move on. If you don't believe it's a good deal, read Joel Sherman's take.
• Yesterday's win against the Red Sox has a lot of meaning for Yankee fans and for the ball club itself. As Hank Steinbrenner once noted, the team needed its own Josh Beckett. Well, as ironic as it is, the Yankees installed their own Beckettesque pitcher in the rotation with Joba Chamberlain and last night, Joba outdueled the same pitcher Hank hoped that he would be. You couldn't ask for a better performance from the young stud (yes, I called Joba a stud, sue my manhood why don't you), although I'd like to see him throw his fastball a bit more.
• Last but certainly not least, it looks like the Red Sox are wondering why Joba can't keep the ball down when facing Kevin Youkilis. To be honest, I think the Sox just need to shut the hell up, even if that's unprofessional of me (I don't have that much professionalism anyway, I mean I am only a blogger). How many times have we seen Derek Jeter get checked inside? Granted, he's not headhunted every times he steps out there, but people brush him back. What's wrong with pitching inside? It's what Pedro Martinez did for years. I thought Sox fans would like that stuff (guess not). Either way, expect some retaliation tomorrow (I'm picking CANO), even if Wakefield is pitching (knuckleballs to the DOME?). Hell, Terry Francona seems pissed, so why not.

To close, I offer these words from ex-Yankee, Ross Ohlendorf:

“I definitely liked being in New York, and I was hoping to be there for the last game at the Stadium,” Ohlendorf said in a telephone interview from Scranton. “But I’m sure it will be a good opportunity. I feel like I’ve definitely gotten better since I’ve been down here.”

I'll actually miss Ohlendorf. He was solid (forget the numbers) and did what was necessary for us to have a chance. He pitched whenever Girardi asked him to and did it with no set role. He's a guy who can really define himself in the NL as a back-end starting pitcher (maybe even better than that?) and I hope he has a great career. I'll see you later, I need to go and grab a Kleenex.

Xavier Nady is currently sporting a line of .330/.383/.535. It's significantly above his career averages and he is not going to keep that up in Yankee Stadium.

However, I think it's fair to expect something in the vein of .270/.330/.450, and I'll take that any day. He's really an average corner outfielder, as his career 108 OPS+ shows, but when he's shoving a wet noodle like Brett Gardner out of the lineup, it doesn't really matter how good he really is. He's average or better, and right-handed, which the Bombers wanted first and foremost.

Damaso Marte has pitched in the American League before, most recently as a member of the 2005 World Champion Chicago White Sox. I don't like his ERA much (3.47), but he is striking out a guy an inning and holds a stingy WHIP of 1.157. That should translate well, and his role will be reduced from closer to middle/set-up reliever. Once again this seems like a good example of why ERA doesn't mean that much, especially for relief pitchers. He doesn't put guys on base. End of story. The Yankees have one of the game's best 'pens as it is, so I don't feel Marte does anything worse than add depth, and at best, gives the Yanks a dependable veteran lefty who can handle hitters on both sides of the plate.

Ross Ohlendorf had been pitching as a starter once again at Triple-A Scranton, with great effectiveness to boot. It's easy to why - the bullpen is stacked and the rotation is somewhat vulnerable but also full. He was trade bait as soon as he made his first start of the year. All in all, I didn't see him helping much once he was sent down.

George Kontos and Phil Coke, both of Double-A Trenton, are solid starting pitchers. Kontos is a nasty righty with significant command and control issues. Coke is old for the league (26) and not a power guy but he's a southpaw. These players were probably going to be in discussion as filler in just about any trade the Yankees made this summer. With so many pitchers ahead of them and younger ones on the way (such as Zach McAllister and Dellin Betances), they were expendable.

Jose Tabata is the most intriguing piece that Pittsburgh acquired.

The outfielder will turn 20 in August and was ranked number 37 on the Baseball America Top 100 Prosepcts list in February. However, he has been terrible at AA and almost certainly damaged his stock between his lousy play and attitude incidents, which include an instance when he walked out of a game earlier in the year (at New Britain, in the 7th inning, I believe). He may be young but a reality check is in order, and he's still very, very far away from the big leagues. Fernando Martinez of the Mets is what the Pirates are hoping Tabata will turn into within the next year or so.

The only guy I care about in the long term is Tabata. Did we sell low? Perhaps. But there's no way we would have gotten Nady and Marte for complete junk. They needed a good prospect and they got one. His makeup questionable and development stuttered by injury and a poor season, Brian Cashman figured it was worth a roll of the dice. Chances are good that Tabata never makes the bigs or at least doesn't reach his projections as "The Next Manny" (Yeah, that does seem a bit extreme). Abreu and Marte could net the Yankees some great compensation this winter, and I would much rather have that on top of having a better chance this year. Who's to say a championship isn't in the works right now?

This site was created to put research results considered relevant in the fight against poverty. For reasons of time, I will try to include as many links as possible. We also intend to assist my students Methodology of Scientific Research. Many of the materials at the moment are only in Spanish.

Soon!

Analysis of tax on four products of the basic food basket. A study that contains the perspective of the consumer, producer and addresses the characteristics of the market.

Articles

Epistemology and Commerce.

The article analyzing the nature of power relations between countries, from a historical perspective, and its impact on trade. From this, examines the prospects for researchers around the theme. It identifies the broader epistemological positions, and consequently the ethical position of recent research on Trade. It also conducts a review of empirical evidence on the impact of trade agreements between rich countries and developing. It concludes that significant parts of the investigation being conducted are inconsistent with the explicit objectives of mankind to minimize poverty and inequity in the world.

Prospective and Multicriteria

This article establishes the application of theoretical principles of social responsibility, multi-criteria analysis and strategic foresight in the complex process of administering the approval or rejection of CAFTA in Costa Rica. Based on an analysis of the realities of trade between rich countries and developing trends addresses the topic, and applied techniques for identifying prospective levels of conflict of stakeholders. They create maps characterization of these stakeholders so that the eventual trade agreement is licensed to operate before the lobbyists.

Power Administration

This article sets out a vision of the administrative process from power and his administration. Analyze the major prospects in this regard and described the system who represents power in the company. The material is small, but dense and interesting.

Negentropy business

Imbalances business

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