Étiquettes » FED

I Told You So: "Handicapping Political Risk" Is The New "Central-Bank Watching"

On Wednesday, following the release of the Fed Minutes, I noted that commentators were jumping the gun with the hawkish headlines.

I wasn’t claiming to be clairvoyant. 525 mots de plus

Fed

How Fed Works

今天我们讲讲美联储是怎么给本国经济发放信贷(credit)的。

过程简单的描述如下:

政府以财政收入为信用基础发行国债,这项国债发行工作由商业银行承担,发达国家的国债信用等级比较高,正常情况下受大型投资者追捧,具体包括养老金账户,国际主权基金等等动辄几十亿美金的买卖量。而更重要的是,所谓的’央行’会大量买进政府债券,图中所示为美联储,但实际上是全球各国央行在大量交叉买他国国债。随后央行根据买进的国债发行银行票(bank note),其实就是政府打给央行的欠条,而这个纸质的欠条也就成了我们喜闻乐见的“钱”。所以“钱”的本质并不是财富,而是一个基于信用的贷款,更准确的叫法应该是信贷,Credit。经济发展中,创造信贷的过程非常重要,房产市场,股票市场,以及个人消费市场都是扩充信贷的工具。这个钱,甚至都不用印刷出来,在各个银行的账目本上把数目记清楚就可以。所以在经济崩溃时,并不是钱凭空消失了,而是之前创造的信贷失约了,破产了,所以credit的数目消减了。看起来就是钱消失了,股市,楼市,资产价格重置。

央行从商业银行买入国债后,回过头来给银行注资,也就是发放货币。而这些货币一部分给政府,政府通过国会立法可以投资于实体项目,比如基建教育福利等等,有太多需要政府花钱的地方,另外一部分,根据部分储备金政策,商业银行只需要有一小部分作为准备金就可以大量地发行贷款。这样就完成了货币发放的过程。

美国

Reflation Frustration

This is probably a decent time to start asking yourself if the narrative still makes sense.

If you got anything out of Steve Mnuchin’s comments on Thursday it should probably be that no matter what Steve Bannon says (there are a lot of « Steves » in this administration), Trump isn’t going to be able to do everything he said he was going to do overnight. 811 mots de plus

Trump

Olive oil & the economy

David joins host Michelle Makori to discuss olive oil and the economy. That’s how we started off but eventually got to more important issues like the Fed, tax reform and other issues important to investors.

David Nelson

Global stocks steady as Fed minutes fail to sway investors


LONDON/February 23, 2017 (AP)(STL.News) — Global stock markets were trading in narrow ranges Thursday after the minutes to the last policy-making meeting of the Federal Reserve failed to provide much of a steer as to the timing of the U.S. 6 mots de plus

Dollar Pulled Between Minutes And Mnuchin, Crude Hopes For Bullish EIA Print

Ok so it’s Thursday morning and everyone has generally come around to what I said moments after the Fed Minutes were released on Wednesday: they were, if anything, dovish. 915 mots de plus

10Y

Day 525: Rate hike not effective

Profit: $8.80 Total: $750.30

The FOMC meeting minutes were released today with great news: U.S. policymakers sees the need for a rate hike « fairly soon ». 93 mots de plus